Do Bad Times Cultivate Courage? : CEO Downcycle Imprinting and Counter-cyclical Strategies
Prof. Sun Hyun Park
Professor of Strategy and International Management
College of Business Administration
Seoul National University
We reconcile prior managerial career imprinting perspectives with managerial experiences, learning, and the development of cognitive frameworks in a fast-changing, cyclical industry. We investigate CEO career imprinting and counter-cyclical investment strategy in the U.S. semiconductor industry. We theorize that CEOs who began their careers in downcycle periods are more likely to implement counter-cyclical strategies when they encounter subsequent industry downcycles in their career. This imprinting effect is reinforced through their individual accumulation of contrarian experiences, i.e., positive performance outcomes following previous counter-cyclical strategies, and the development of a cognitive framework valuing industry downturns as opportunities for long-term investment. Our empirical study of the entire career history of 311 unique CEOs since 1977 and counter-cyclical investment records between 2001 and 2020 supports our hypotheses.