Events

Dr. Karamfil Todorov
Economist
Monetary and Economic Department, Financial Markets
Bank for International Settlements

This paper explores the variance risk premium in option returns across twenty different futures, including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities (energy, metals, and grains). We implement a novel model-free methodology that constructs tradable option portfolios, which replicate realized variance. In the period 2006–2020, most assets had significant variance risk premiums, but the realized S&P 500 variance risk premium was not significantly different from zero. Within a particular asset, option prices across different strikes are related to the level of volatility and the correlation of volatility with futures returns. Returns to variance are not associated with systematic risk, but are related to fat tails, consistent with option dealers demanding a premium for holding idiosyncratic volatility risk. Contrary to Bollerslev et al. (2009), we find that option-implied variance does not positively predict underlying futures returns for the majority of assets. However, implied variance does predict returns to variance-sensitive option portfolios.