Government Deleveraging and the reverse crowding-in effect: Evidence from Subnational Debt and Government Contractors
SPEAKER
Professor
The China Center for Economic Research
National School of Development
Peking University
We show that government deleveraging causes liquidity squeeze among government contractors, an unintended consequence of containing sub-national debts. Our empirical analysis exploits China’s top-down deleveraging policy in 2017 and a purposefully-built dataset of listed firms matched with government procurement contracts. We find that private contractors experience larger accounts receivable increases, larger cash holding reductions, more share-pledging activities, worse operating performance, and higher probabilities of ownership change than noncontractors. Effects are muted among state-owned enterprises, implying that local governments selectively delay payments. Our findings reveal a novel trade credit channel for a reverse crowding-in effect whereby government deleveraging amplifies financial distortions against private firms.