Interest-rate risk and household portfolios
Professor Sylvain Catherine
Assistant Professor of Finance
The Wharton School
The University of Pennsylvania
How are households exposed to interest-rate risk? When rates fall, households face lower future expected returns but those holding long-term assets— disproportionately the wealthy and middle-aged—experience capital gains. We study the hedging demand for long-term assets in a portfolio choice model. The optimal interest-rate sensitivity of wealth is hump-shaped over the life cycle. Within cohorts, it increases with wealth and earnings. These predictions fit observed patterns in the United States, suggesting a relatively efficient distribution of interest-rate risk. By protecting workers from rate fluctuations, Social Security limits the welfare consequences of rising wealth inequality when rates fall.