In the Media

Professor Heiwai Tang was recently interviewed by RTHK on the development of the semiconductor industry in Hong Kong. He mentioned that the development of the semiconductor sector could drive growth in both the upstream and downstream industries.

截至7月底，国内共推出超300个大模型。经过大模型数量之争的上半场，下半场中国大模型该如何押宝？“持续稳定的政策支持、庞大的算力规模和广阔的应用场景是中国独特的竞争优势和巨大的发展潜力。”蒋镇辉教授认为，大模型将从数量到更重视应用端发展。

With the rapidly changing economic structure nowadays, investing in higher education is no longer a guaranteed way to achieve high returns. This raises the question: is it still worth attending university? Due to the on-going economic restructuring in China, university graduates not only face difficulty in finding jobs, but a more unusual phenomenon is that the graduates with higher education qualifications encounter even more difficulties in securing employment. The author opined that it is because the education industry has expanded excessively in the past 20 years, coupled with uneven economic development and reduced social mobility, which has diminished educational returns. The widespread use of artificial intelligence technology brings greater uncertainty to future educational returns.

為促進香港經濟增長，政府實行了大規模的研發補貼，旨在創造新產業和刺激新的經濟增長。政府還積極放寬移民限制，希望吸引年輕人才。 可惜，這些政策的作用很有限。過去10年，儘管特區政府在創新補貼上花費了巨額資金，但本港的機械、設備和知識產權實際投資，從2012年的2780億元（佔GDP的13.7%），下降到2023年的1730億元（佔GDP的5.8%）。儘管移民限制得到放寬，本港勞動人口在2023年5月至2024年5月期間，僅增長了0.4%。

Chinese authorities are chasing unpaid taxes from companies and individuals dating back decades, as the government moves to plug massive budget shortfalls and address a mounting debt crisis. “When business owners are feeling insecure, how can there be more private investment growth in China?” said Chen Zhiwu, a finance professor at the University of Hong Kong’s business school. “An economic slowdown is inevitable.”

China Evergrande Group’s liquidators have launched court proceedings against PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, another legal step to recover at least a fraction of creditors’ investments from the property giant. “A collapse as large as China Evergrande severely undermines investors’ confidence in the system, and the only way to restore it is to have a transparent autopsy,” said Pingyang Gao, an accounting and law professor at the HKU Business School. He added that the liquidators’ legal actions and court proceedings will help with that process.

Extreme weather incidents are becoming more frequent, bringing unprecedented challenges to various industries. In addition to the increasing costs of equipment maintenance and emergency measures, the enterprises’ production plans may be affected by equipment damages and supply chain interruptions. Investors are also concerned about the impact of extreme weather on businesses, resulting in fluctuations in stock prices and increased financing costs.

香港大學經管學院中國經濟研究所（ICE）聯同中國人民大學中國宏觀經濟論壇（CMF）7月20日舉辦了「2024年中國與全球經濟論壇」，邀請了多位重量級經濟學者和工商界領袖，聯袂分析中國經濟未來發展方向和應對潛在挑戰的解決方案。 吳曉求教授指出，對中國來說外部需求特別重要。「千萬不要認為中國經濟規模擴大後，靠自己消費就能完成過剩供給能力的平衡」。他強調，中國是投資推動經濟成長佔比非常重要的國家，所以需要外部平衡強大的供給能力。

In this latest interview in the Open Questions series, Prof. Mao analyses China’s struggling property sector, reflects on US-China tensions, surveys the results of the highly anticipated third plenum and examines the changing nature of Hong Kong’s role in the broader economy.