In the Media

The current economic growth and limited land supply have driven up housing demand and long-term property price appreciation. However, due to the geopolitical tensions between China and the US, changes in Mainland Chinese tourists' spending patterns, as well as increasingly fierce competition from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, both office and retail vacancies have reached high levels. Where should Hong Kong's economic development go from here?

HKU Business School recently announced its forecast for Hong Kong's economy in Q3 2024. In an interview with Now News, Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of HKU Business School and Director of Asia Global Institute, believes that investment and consumer confidence are key factors for economic recovery. "Affected by the wealth effect, due to the negative conditions in the stock and property markets, the public's investment and consumption confidence is naturally not high. In the long run, it will depend on the government's economic transformation policies over the next three years, which will provide new drivers of economic growth."

One of the indicators of whether a city can be considered as an international metropolis is perhaps the English proficiency of its residents. According to the EF English Proficiency Index report in 2023, Hong Kong ranked fourth among 23 countries and regions in Asia. However, there are two examples of different attitudes towards English in developed areas of Asia.

The shrinking salaries of China’s financial professionals have made the jobs in this sector losing lustre. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, commented that such pay cuts may drive away skilled financial professionals, and depress supply of risk capital and other financial services. He said, “[Over time], tech start-ups and the real economy will also suffer if there is fewer risk capital and financial products to support them.” China’s financial industry used to be providing generous salaries to bankers and financial brokers in a push to incentivise performance and internationalise operations. Prof. Chen said that a market-oriented way is better than top-down directives to decide compensation for financial professionals. “China needs to loosen regulations, increase competition to drive down the price of financial services [to benefit people and businesses],” he said.

Hong Kong is winning back wealthy people thanks to the city’s policy initiatives including tax concessions, top talent visa and residency programs, and the establishment of Family Office Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s assets under management grew 2.1% to HK$31 trillion (US$4 trillion) in 2023. Driven by a strong performance of private banking and wealth management, net fund inflows jumped more than 3 times to nearly HK$390 billion last year. While Singapore stepped up efforts to combat money laundering, it has seen a major shift from the pandemic years since Hong Kong relaxed the quarantine rules and reopened the border with efficient transportation to mainland China cities. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, said the mainland billionaires’ enthusiasm for setting up family office business in Singapore has waned, as they prefer less government checks to their personal wealth. “If Singapore would do as many checks and tighter regulations as the mainland, then why would they want to go there?” Prof. Chen said.

Investment bankers at China International Capital Corp. are pledging their loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party amid reshaped the business and cultural landscape in China. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, a chair professor in finance at HKU Business School, said, “There has been a political redefinition of finance.” He added, “The future of CICC is that there’s no more CICC in a few years’ time”.

As distributing cash dividends has been a growing trend in A-share market, related regulations and taxation have also become issues of concern for investors. In recent years, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has implemented a series of measures to enhance the regulation of distributing cash dividends by listed companies, and encourage the increase of dividend pay-out ratios, which reflects the regulator's commitment to protecting the interests of individual investors.

China has achieved an annual GDP growth rate of over 8% for the past 45 years. It boasts an enormous domestic market, yet consumption accounts for only 39% of its GDP, one of the lowest ratios in the world nowadays. Can China maintain a growth rate of 6% or 7%? Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of HKU Business School and Director of Asia Global Institute, believes China has the potential for economic growth, but it has now become very difficult due to concerns about aging populations and the desire to live to an advanced age, leading to high saving rates.

Physical bank branches and ATMs have seen their numbers dwindling as the public embraces e-payment platforms and financial institutions cut costs. Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, said, “The banks have found it unnecessary to add branches as they reduce costs.” A refocus on mobile payments among other online transactions, he said, “has in effect served to reduce face-to-face services at banks”.