People

港大經管學院副院長（對外事務）鄧希煒教授表示，由於地緣政治因素，加上內地本土市場過度競爭，不少當地龍頭企業希望「出海」開拓市場。他舉例，近期來港掛牌的美的集團（00300）及順豐（06936）在內地上市多年，擇此時機在港掛牌，希望作全球部署。他直言，若只在上海或北京設置總部，內地資本管制下，資金較難投資外地，「幾十億資金難以到馬來西亞或越南」；以香港作為地區總部，就可集資及投資外地市場，擴展商業版圖。

Hong Kong's economy is facing a series of significant challenges, including an ongoing fiscal deficit, not being able to fully leverage the composite advantages of the Greater Bay Area, a shrinking middle class, and a drain of international talent.

Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of HKU Business School and Director of the Asia Global Institute shared in an interview with the TVB Pearl programme that the trade war has deteriorated with decoupling notably underway in the technology sector like semiconductors, AI and robotics. However, he believes that Hong Kong can still capitalise the opportunities ahead, positioning the city as a centre for supply chain management and professional services such as financial services and tax advisory consulting.

In a recent interview with CNA, Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of HKU Business School and Director of the Asia Global Institute, shared that he was not surprised that Trump will raise tariffs on China. As he expected, Trump would increase tariffs on China gradually to gain bargaining power for the U.S. Increasing tariffs is an inefficient measure because they will increase the cost of production and the prices of goods for the U.S. He thinks that the U.S. tariffs on Mexico may not last for too long, as the two governments may agree on a deal soon, given the relatively smaller economic size but much more dependence on exports to the U.S. for Mexico.

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, US-China relations are set to grow more tense. Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of HKU Business School and Director of the Asia Global Institute, noted in a HKEJ interview that Trump’s hawkish cabinet may escalate pressure on China in trade, technology, and geopolitics. China must strengthen alliances and boost domestic demand, while Hong Kong needs to uphold its role as a “bridge between East and West.” A Global Shift: “One Globe, Two Systems” Prof. Tang highlighted that the world is entering the “One Globe, Two Systems” era, where the US-led technological ecosystem competes with China’s independent system. Trump’s policies may accelerate decoupling in AI and semiconductors. China must bolster self-reliance, restructure supply chains, and deepen ties with Europe and ASEAN, while Trump’s isolationist stance may weaken US alliances, offering China new opportunities.

In a recent interview with Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK), Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of HKU Business School and Director of Asia Global Institute, provided an in-depth analysis of the implications of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. He mentioned that Trump advocates for an "America First" policy, and the implementation of high tariffs and trade wars could disrupt global supply chains. However, this might benefit financial markets, as Trump is likely to use monetary policy, particularly interest rate cuts, to stimulate economic growth. Prof. Tang emphasised that while tariffs will undoubtedly impact Chinese exports, the effects may not be as severe as anticipated. He highlighted the conflict Trump faces between inflationary pressures and the desire to lower interest rates. He believes that while Trump will certainly impose tariffs on China, they are unlikely to reach the 60% level he suggests. Furthermore, he indicated that Trump may hesitate to implement a 10% tariff on allies in the short term. Regarding US-China relations, Professor Tang predicts that complete decoupling is unlikely because the US will continue to purchase non-sensitive items from China. He also suggested that Trump's policies could have a mildly positive effect on the global economy and could potentially aid Hong Kong in reclaiming its status as a financial hub.

E-commerce sales in Hong Kong currently represent only 8% of total retail sales, significantly lower than in markets like mainland China, the UK, and South Korea. This suggests substantial growth potential for e-commerce and digital trade in the region. The city should seize future trade trends and focus on digitizing trade by achieving three KPIs: the realization of paperless trade, the development of cross-border e-commerce, and the advancement of digital services trade.

E-commerce sales in Hong Kong currently represent only 8% of total retail sales, significantly lower than in markets like mainland China, the UK, and South Korea. This suggests substantial growth potential for e-commerce and digital trade in the region. The city should seize future trade trends and focus on digitizing trade by achieving three KPIs: the realization of paperless trade, the development of cross-border e-commerce, and the advancement of digital services trade.

Hong Kong’s economy grapples with several long-standing structural challenges, such as monopolies by large corporations and an over-reliance on the financial sector, which presents a pressing need for economic diversification. Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of HKU Business School and Director of the Asia Global Institute, notes that despite the Central Government’s push for multi-industry development, including high-tech advancements and enhancing collaboration with the Greater Bay Area, talent loss due to emigration and a conservative civil service culture are hindering significant breakthroughs. While the government has launched various talent attraction policies, such as the “Top Talent Pass Scheme”, Prof. Tang highlights the need for Hong Kong to attract leading enterprises to the city, which will naturally draw in the skilled professionals required for sustainable growth. As Hong Kong adapts to geopolitical shifts, a two-legged approach is recommended to strengthen its ties beyond the West, extending connections to ASEAN and the Middle East. This involves improving academic research and education related to Islamic culture and finance.

In recent years, Hong Kong's economy has entered a period of uncertainty, with increasing reports of layoffs and business closures. However, while the public's perception of the job market is less than positive, the unemployment rate is kept at a low level. What is happening? The unemployment rate refers to the ratio of the number of unemployed individuals to the total labour force. Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of HKU Business School and Director of the Asia Global Institute, explained that the low unemployment rate is largely due to recent emigration, which has decreased both the labour force and the number of unemployed individuals. He highlighted that ongoing business closures are likely to exert upward pressure on the unemployment rate. Many emigrants are skilled professionals, while new arrivals often prioritise settling their families, leading to job mismatches.