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Learning from a black box
Learning from a black box
We introduce a learning model in which the decision maker does not know how recommendations are generated, called the contraction rule. We present behavioral postulates that characterize it. The contraction rule can be uniquely identified and reveals how the decision maker interprets and how much she trusts the recommendation. In a dynamic stationary setting, we show that the contraction rule is not dominated by completely following recommendations and is incompatible with a property called compliance with balanced recommendations. Following this negative result, we demonstrate that the contraction rule may generate and reinforce recency bias and disagreement.

Logic-based updating
Logic-based updating
We build on AGM belief revision (Alchourrón et al. (1985)) and propose a class of updating rules called pragmatic rules. Pragmatic updating applies to multiple priors and requires that the agent's posteriors be the subset of her priors under which the realized event occurs with probability 1, if such priors exist. We construct a propositional language based on qualitative probability and demonstrate the strong relation between belief updating rules and belief revision rules in this language. We show that an updating rule is consistent with AGM belief revision if and only if it is pragmatic. While maximum likelihood updating is pragmatic in general, full-Bayesian updating is not. We characterize maximum likelihood updating within the AGM framework, and show that full-Bayesian updating can be obtained by dropping one of AGM's postulates.

Strategic Alliances and Lending Relationships
Strategic Alliances and Lending Relationships
We study how proprietary information flows in strategic alliances facilitate banks’ information collection in private debt markets. We argue that lenders that have previously worked with a borrower’s alliance partners have an information advantage and show that firms entering a strategic alliance receive a lower interest spread on loans from banks that have previously lent to their strategic partners than loans from other banks. Cross-sectional tests on alliances’ economic importance and participants’ information environment support our hypothesis that the loan price effect is driven by reduced information asymmetry between borrowers and their partners’ relationship banks. Last, we find borrowers are more likely to obtain debt financing from alliance-related banks than from other banks. Overall, our findings are consistent with lenders that have previously worked with an alliance counterparty possessing debt contracting-relevant information about the soft nature of alliance value and the partners’ commitment to alliances.

Does Socially Responsible Investing Change Firm Behavior?
In recent years, the appeal of socially responsible investing (SRI) has grown significantly among investors who are not only seeking financial returns but might also be motivated by a desire to support positive social and environmental outcomes. SRI funds position themselves as instruments of driving ESG change, claiming to invest in companies with strong ESG practices. Some funds further assert that they actively work to improve the ESG behaviors of firms within their portfolios. However, a key question remains: Do these funds genuinely influence corporate behavior, or are they merely curating portfolios of companies that already demonstrate stronger ESG credentials? Heath et al. (2023) offer an in-depth examination of this issue.
Casting a Light on Dark Venues
Casting a Light on Dark Venues
Increased trading in dark venues around earnings announcements offers advantages to businesses and markets that can allay regulators’ concerns
How to Predict Popularity
How to Predict Popularity
If the many functions of digital social media networks could be summed up in one word, it would likely be “sharing”. Through a myriad of apps and platforms, we share our thoughts, feelings, opinions, ideas, and more – with our friends and family, with our online social circles, with strangers, and even with companies.
Learning to Coordinate in Firms’ Behaviours  – Dr. Jasmine Yu HAO
Learning to Coordinate in Firms’ Behaviours – Dr. Jasmine Yu HAO
While computer languages may sound alien to economics, I aim to showcase that good programming skills are conducive not limited to economic research, it can also open up endless career possibilities for you in the business world.

To Imagine the Future of Digital Currencies – Dr. Yang YOU
To Imagine the Future of Digital Currencies – Dr. Yang YOU
As a teacher, I will push myself to understand the expectations of local employers' and the market dynamics of Hong Kong.

From Quantum Physics to Quantitative Marketing – Dr. Chu (Ivy) Dang
From Quantum Physics to Quantitative Marketing – Dr. Chu (Ivy) Dang
As a science person, I am impressed by our students' strong business acumen. But as a teacher, other than teaching them how to use quantitative tools to make scientific claims, I also hope that I can encourage them to continue to stay inquisitive about the world and apply their classroom knowledge for the betterment of the society.

How Can Corporates Implement ESG Initiatives: A win-win for Society and Economy
How Can Corporates Implement ESG Initiatives: A win-win for Society and Economy
Today, in the face of complex environmental, social, and governance challenges, ESG has become a central focus for businesses. In the past, businesses often improved their ESG ratings by following the criteria of various rating agencies. However, with around 600 ESG rating agencies worldwide, each with its own standards, rating inconsistencies are common. This means that even with significant efforts in ESG, companies may still receive varying ratings.
The U.S., Tariffs, and Trump
The U.S., Tariffs, and Trump
In the highly anticipated US presidential election, regardless of the outcome, the elected candidate will significantly impact the international political and economic landscape. Trump's foreign economic policy during his first term has already become apparent, with a strong focus on using tariffs as a negotiation tool. If re-elected, he intends to impose tariffs of up to 60% to 100% on Chinese products and 10% to 20% on goods from other countries.
Navigating Hong Kong’s Trade Digitalization: Three Essential KPIs
Navigating Hong Kong’s Trade Digitalization: Three Essential KPIs
E-commerce sales in Hong Kong currently represent only 8% of total retail sales, significantly lower than in markets like mainland China, the UK, and South Korea. This suggests substantial growth potential for e-commerce and digital trade in the region. The city should seize future trade trends and focus on digitizing trade by achieving three KPIs: the realization of paperless trade, the development of cross-border e-commerce, and the advancement of digital services trade.
Platform Bias Creates Barriers to Digital Innovations
Platform Bias Creates Barriers to Digital Innovations
Digital platforms help lesser-known cultural workers find their audience by reducing consumers' search costs, allowing products that struggle in traditional markets to enter at lower costs, thereby fostering a more diverse marketplace. However, as traffic becomes increasingly important, operations of digital platforms are becoming more biased. In China's digital arts and entertainment market, the platform's promotion and manipulation can dictate a creative work's success and may even hinder innovation.
Submarine Cables – The Silk Road of the Digital Economy
Submarine Cables – The Silk Road of the Digital Economy
[Financial Times Chinese column] Submarine cables carry approximately 99% of the global intercontinental data flow, making them crucial for the development of digital economy. The Chinese government has emphasized the need to accelerate digital infrastructure development in its "14th Five-Year Plan," promoting the "Digital Silk Road."
Taste of Free Lunch: The Impact of Free Product Disclosure on Review Dynamics
Taste of Free Lunch: The Impact of Free Product Disclosure on Review Dynamics
Does a "free lunch" really exist? Some online shopping platforms let consumers disclose if they received products for free or at a discount when writing reviews. Although these reviews for free products are not the majority, they can energize online communities where reviews are limited. The lack of objectivity in free product reviews can trigger self-regulation within online communities, prompting more users to provide fair feedback. Voluntary disclosure policies can effectively boost the number of reviews at a lower cost than hiring experts to write positive reviews.
Platform Bias Creates Barriers to Digital Innovations
Platform Bias Creates Barriers to Digital Innovations
Digital platforms help lesser-known cultural workers find their audience by reducing consumers' search costs, allowing products that struggle in traditional markets to enter at lower costs, thereby fostering a more diverse marketplace. However, as traffic becomes increasingly important, operations of digital platforms are becoming more biased. In China's digital arts and entertainment market, the platform's promotion and manipulation can dictate a creative work's success and may even hinder innovation.
Hong Kong set for pain from tariff rises after Trump win but businesses ready
Hong Kong set for pain from tariff rises after Trump win but businesses ready
Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, said the Hong Kong economy would inevitably be hurt as the US was likely to raise tariffs on Chinese goods and toughen policies on technology transfers and tech investments in China. But he said he also expected the new tariffs to be capped at 60 per cent. The former Yale University professor pointed to one of Trump’s biggest supporters, tech billionaire Elon Musk, as a possible taming force in policymaking related to China during Trump’s second term. He also anticipated more aggressive stimulus efforts from Beijing to counter the greater geopolitical uncertainty. “Thus, on balance, this US election outcome may actually be good for Hong Kong, at least to the extent that it makes the leadership in Beijing reprioritise economic development over politics,” Chen said.

Trump’s Economic Strategies: Implications for Global Trade and Financial Markets
Trump’s Economic Strategies: Implications for Global Trade and Financial Markets
In a recent interview with Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK), Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of HKU Business School and Director of Asia Global Institute, provided an in-depth analysis of the implications of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. He mentioned that Trump advocates for an "America First" policy, and the implementation of high tariffs and trade wars could disrupt global supply chains. However, this might benefit financial markets, as Trump is likely to use monetary policy, particularly interest rate cuts, to stimulate economic growth. Prof. Tang emphasised that while tariffs will undoubtedly impact Chinese exports, the effects may not be as severe as anticipated. He highlighted the conflict Trump faces between inflationary pressures and the desire to lower interest rates. He believes that while Trump will certainly impose tariffs on China, they are unlikely to reach the 60% level he suggests. Furthermore, he indicated that Trump may hesitate to implement a 10% tariff on allies in the short term. Regarding US-China relations, Professor Tang predicts that complete decoupling is unlikely because the US will continue to purchase non-sensitive items from China. He also suggested that Trump's policies could have a mildly positive effect on the global economy and could potentially aid Hong Kong in reclaiming its status as a financial hub.