In the Media

港大經管學院中國經濟研究所（ICE）聯同中國人民大學中國宏觀經濟論壇（CMF）日前舉辦論壇，港大經管學院實務教授及中國宏觀經濟論壇聯席主席毛振華分析中國經濟築底回升的六項重要政策選擇，當中強調應以政策協助穩住房地產價格、調整消費需求和消費能力、妥善應對及化解債務問題、激發市場與民間投資與創新，以及透過改革開放進一步提升生產量和產品質素，並認為開放是中國經濟增長與發展的源泉之一，除了全面深化改革開放，更要充分發揮香港與大灣區的優勢，透過「引進來、走出去」，加快構建經濟雙循環新格局。

WSJ talked about the current trend of corporate dictatorships, where companies are run by founder-chief executives who hold on to special voting shares or run boards as their own personal fief. The article highlights a study by Prof. Roni Michaely of the University of Hong Kong, Hyunseob Kim of the Chicago Federal Reserve, and Doron Levit of University of Washington, which found that the benefits of a benign corporate dictatorship wane over time. The research, which examined 920 companies with both voting and non-voting shares, revealed an intriguing pattern. During the initial years following an IPO, companies with founder control tended to perform on par with their more democratically governed counterparts. However, after a decade or so, a significant premium emerged for shares with full voting rights. The article argues that granting full voting rights to all stakeholders is still the best form of governance for companies in the long run.

How can we leverage voluminous and critical data to gain insights into Hong Kong's macro-economic landscape? In today's data-driven world, diverse stakeholders often arrive at vastly different conclusions by examining various datasets through unique lenses and methodologies. However, Dr. Chi Pui Ho advocates that to truly comprehend the overall economic trends, we should employ economic time series analysis, leveraging clear visualisations as a starting point. This, when combined with consistent relevant theories, can paint a nuanced picture of the trends and upcoming challenges across different economic landscapes.

The current economic growth and limited land supply have driven up housing demand and long-term property price appreciation. However, due to the geopolitical tensions between China and the US, changes in Mainland Chinese tourists' spending patterns, as well as increasingly fierce competition from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, both office and retail vacancies have reached high levels. Where should Hong Kong's economic development go from here?

HKU Business School recently announced its forecast for Hong Kong's economy in Q3 2024. In an interview with Now News, Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of HKU Business School and Director of Asia Global Institute, believes that investment and consumer confidence are key factors for economic recovery. "Affected by the wealth effect, due to the negative conditions in the stock and property markets, the public's investment and consumption confidence is naturally not high. In the long run, it will depend on the government's economic transformation policies over the next three years, which will provide new drivers of economic growth."

One of the indicators of whether a city can be considered as an international metropolis is perhaps the English proficiency of its residents. According to the EF English Proficiency Index report in 2023, Hong Kong ranked fourth among 23 countries and regions in Asia. However, there are two examples of different attitudes towards English in developed areas of Asia.

The shrinking salaries of China’s financial professionals have made the jobs in this sector losing lustre. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, commented that such pay cuts may drive away skilled financial professionals, and depress supply of risk capital and other financial services. He said, “[Over time], tech start-ups and the real economy will also suffer if there is fewer risk capital and financial products to support them.” China’s financial industry used to be providing generous salaries to bankers and financial brokers in a push to incentivise performance and internationalise operations. Prof. Chen said that a market-oriented way is better than top-down directives to decide compensation for financial professionals. “China needs to loosen regulations, increase competition to drive down the price of financial services [to benefit people and businesses],” he said.

Hong Kong is winning back wealthy people thanks to the city’s policy initiatives including tax concessions, top talent visa and residency programs, and the establishment of Family Office Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s assets under management grew 2.1% to HK$31 trillion (US$4 trillion) in 2023. Driven by a strong performance of private banking and wealth management, net fund inflows jumped more than 3 times to nearly HK$390 billion last year. While Singapore stepped up efforts to combat money laundering, it has seen a major shift from the pandemic years since Hong Kong relaxed the quarantine rules and reopened the border with efficient transportation to mainland China cities. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, said the mainland billionaires’ enthusiasm for setting up family office business in Singapore has waned, as they prefer less government checks to their personal wealth. “If Singapore would do as many checks and tighter regulations as the mainland, then why would they want to go there?” Prof. Chen said.

Investment bankers at China International Capital Corp. are pledging their loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party amid reshaped the business and cultural landscape in China. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, a chair professor in finance at HKU Business School, said, “There has been a political redefinition of finance.” He added, “The future of CICC is that there’s no more CICC in a few years’ time”.