香港政府预计本年度将出现近1000亿港元的赤字,这一数字远高于去年二月最初预测的481亿港元。国际货币基金组织(IMF)强调,香港需要增强税收以应对与人口老龄化相关的支出压力。 港大经管学院副院长及亚洲环球研究所总监邓希炜教授支持通过提高税率或扩大税基来解决可能出现的结构性财政赤字问题。他指出政府官员存在一种“心理陷阱”,认为提高税收会损害生产力,同时指出新加坡实施商品及服务税(GST)并未在中期内影响生产力。他表示:“扩大税基,特别是引入销售税,将是一条单行道”,强调随著政府开支增长,需寻求可持续的收入来源。
3917 0029
3917 4388
MB 335/ KK 920
- PhD: MIT
- Bachelor: UCLA
Heiwai Tang is Victor and William Fung Professor in Economics, Director of the Asia Global Institute and HKU APEC Study Center, as well as the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong Kong (HKU). Prior to joining HKU, he was tenured Associate Professor of International Economics at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of Johns Hopkins University. He is also affiliated with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (U.S.), the Center of Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESIfo, Germany), the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany) and the Globalization and Economic Policy Center (U.K.) as a research fellow. He has been a consultant to the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the United Nations, and the Asian Development Bank; and held visiting positions at the IMF, Stanford, MIT, Harvard. He is currently an associate editor of the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Comparative Economics and the China Economic Review. Since 2021, he has served on a number of public bodies, including the Currency Board Sub-Committee of the HKMA’s Exchange Fund Advisory Committee and the Minimum Wage Commission in Hong Kong.
Heiwai holds a Ph.D. in economics from MIT and a Bachelor of Science in mathematics from UCLA. His research interests span a wide range of theoretical and empirical topics in international trade, with a specific focus on production networks, global value chains, and China. His research has been published in leading journals in economics, including American Economic Review and Journal of International Economics. His research and opinions have been covered by BBC, Financial Times, New York Times, Al Jazeera, Foreign Policy, South China Morning Post, and various think tanks such as the Brookings Institution and the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Columbia-LBS-HKU EMBA: The New World Order
HKU-PKU DBA: Frontiers in Economics Research
Fudan-HKU IMBA: The New World Order
HKU: Undergraduate Common Core – China in the Global Economy; MBA – Global Economy; Master of Economics – Economic Policy
International Trade, Global Value Chains, Development Economics
- “Trade Networks and Firm Value: Evidence from the US-China Trade War,” Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. (with Yi Huang, Chen Lin, and Sibo Liu)
- “Currency Carry Trade by Trucks: The Curious Case of China’s Massive Imports from Itself”, Review of Finance, 27(2), March 2023, pp. 469–493. (with Xuepeng Liu, Zhi Wang, and Shang-Jin Wei)
- “Do Multinationals Transfer Culture? Evidence on Female Employment in China”, Journal of International Economics, 133, Nov 2021, 103518. (with Yifan Zhang)
- “Domestic Segment of Global Value Chains in China under State Capitalism”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 48(4), Dec 2020, pp. 797-821. (with Fei Wang and Zhi Wang)
- “Why is China Investing in Africa? Evidence from the Firm Level”, World Bank Economic Review, 32(3), Oct 2018, pp. 610-632. (with Wenjie Chen and David Dollar)
- “Are Foreign Firms Favored in China? Firm-level Evidence on the Collection of Value-Added Tax”, Journal of International Business Policy, 1(2), Inaugural Issue, Jun 2018, pp. 71-91. (with Yasheng Huang)
- “Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China”, American Economic Review, 106(6), Jun 2016, pp. 1402-1436. (with Hiau Looi Kee)
- “Learning to Export from Neighbors”, Journal of International Economics, 94(1), Sep 2014, pp. 67-84. (with Ana Fernandes)
- “Factor Intensity, Product Switching, and Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Exporters”, Journal of International Economics, 92(2), Mar 2014, pp. 349-362. (with Yue Ma and Yifan Zhang)
- “International Politics and Import Diversification”, Journal of Law and Economics, 56(4), Nov 2013, pp. 1091-1121. (with Sergey Mityakov and Kevin Tsui)
- “Determinants of Vertical Integration in Export Processing: Theory and Evidence from China”, Journal of Development Economics, 99(2), Nov 2012, pp. 396-414. (with Ana Fernandes)
- “Labor Market Institutions, Firm-specific Skills, and Trade Patterns”, Journal of International Economics, 87(2), Jul 2012, pp. 337-351.
- APEC Study Center Financial Support from the HKSAR Government, PI, HKD 2,500,000, 2022-2027
- HKU Knowledge Exchange Grant, PI, HKD 497,000, 2023
- Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 418,975, 2022-2024
- Committee of 100 Next Generation Leader, 2018
- Richard Paul Richman Center for Business, Law, and Public Policy Grant, Columbia University, Co-PI, USD 14,500.
- Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada Insight Grant, Co-Investigator, CAD 78,736
- Student-Elected Best Professor of the Master of International Econ and Finance Program, JHU SAIS, 2016-2017
- Alcoa Foundation Grant, Co-PI, USD 500,000, 2016-2019
- Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 364,378, 2017-2019
- Outstanding Referee Journal of International Economics, 2014-2017.
- Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 336,462, 2011-2013
- The Nuffield Foundation Social Science Grant, SGS/36581, Co-PI, £12,000, 2009-2011
- MIT Presidential Fellowship, 2002-2003
- Securities and Futures Appeals Tribunal of the HKSAR government, member, 2023 –
- Panel of Arbitrators of the Labour Relations Ordinance, HKSAR, member, 2023 –
- Insurance Authority in Hong Kong SAR, Member of the Industry Advisory Committee, 2022 –
- Telecommunications Appeal Board of the HKSAR Government, Member, 2022 –
- Currency Board Sub-Committee of the HKMA Exchange Fund Advisory Committee, Member, 2021-
- Minimum Wage Commission in Hong Kong SAR, Member, 2021 –
- Pacific Economic Review, Managing Editor, 2022 –
- Journal of International Economics, Associate Editor, 2019 – 2022
- China Economic Review, Associate Editor, 2018 –
- Journal of Comparative Economics, Associate Editor, 2017 – 2023
- China Economics Summer Institute, Academic Committee Member, 2017 –
- International Finance Corporation (IFC), Consultant, 2017 –
- United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Consultant, 2016 – 2017
- Asian Development Bank, Consultant, 2016 – 2017
- IMF, Research Department, Visiting Scholar, 2015 – 2016
- World Bank, Consultant, 2013 – 2017
港大经管学院副院长及亚洲环球研究所总监邓希炜教授指出近年不少内地企业因应内地经济转型及增长放缓,欲透过香港集资及出海。 他强调:「内地企业有双总部概念,研发制造总部多于大湾区的深圳,对外贸易及集资业务设在香港,正是看中本港金融市场拥有全球视野,有助拓展业务。」
港大经管学院副院长及亚洲环球研究所总监邓希炜教授在最近的一次媒体访问中指出:“香港并没有坚实的工业基础,这妨碍了科技商业化。”然而,他强调创造市场对科技的需求是至关重要的。香港必须利用粤港澳大湾区的人才和资本资源,以及制造和科技能力,以加速科技商业化的规模经济。他表示:“当这里建立更多战略性企业时,将为本地和海外的人才创造高端科技职位,无论是在基础科学还是应用科学领域,从而促进科技商业化。”
港大经管学院副院长(对外事务)邓希炜教授表示,由于地缘政治因素,加上内地本土市场过度竞争,不少当地龙头企业希望「出海」开拓市场。他举例,近期来港挂牌的美的集团(00300)及顺丰(06936)在内地上市多年,择此时机在港挂牌,希望作全球部署。他直言,若只在上海或北京设置总部,内地资本管制下,资金较难投资外地,「几十亿资金难以到马来西亚或越南」;以香港作为地区总部,就可集资及投资外地市场,扩展商业版图。
香港经济自二战后尽管经历多次起伏,其国际金融及贸易中心地位,依然在世界经济舞台上历久不衰。 然而,面对近年全球经济增长放缓、区域竞争激烈及地缘政治局势恶化,香港作为高度外向型的自由经济体,我们不能因为过去均能化危为机便心存侥幸。 时移世易,香港现时面对人口老化等诸多内忧,加上外部挑战,未必如昔日般「耐寒」。
邓希炜教授在接受TVB Pearl节目的访问时表示,贸易战已恶化,科技领域(如半导体、人工智能和机器人技术)明显出现脱钩现象。 然而,他认为香港仍然可以把握未来的机遇,将这座城市定位为供应链管理和专业服务(如金融服务和税务谘询)的中心。
在最近接受CNA访问时,港大经管学院副院长(对外事务), 亚洲环球研究所总监邓希炜教授表示,他对特朗普将提高对中国的关税并不感到惊讶。他预期,特朗普会逐步提高对中国的关税,以增强美国的谈判权力。 提高关税是一种低效的措施,因为这将增加美国的生产成本和商品价格。他认为,美国对墨西哥的关税可能不会持续太久,因为两国政府可能很快就会达成协议,考虑到墨西哥的经济规模相对较小,但对美国的出口依赖程度更高。
随着特朗普确定重返白宫,中美关系将进一步紧张。港大经管学院副院长及亚洲环球研究所总监邓希炜教授在接受《信报财经》访问时指出,特朗普新内阁的鹰派基调可能加强对中国在贸易、科技及地缘政治方面的打压。在全球博弈中,中国需拉拢盟友与深化内需,而香港需稳固其「中西桥梁」的角色。 全球正式进入「一球两制」时代 邓教授指出,全球科技格局已进入「一球两制」时代,即美国主导的技术生态与中国的独立体系分庭抗礼。特朗普的政策或加速科技脱钩,尤其是在人工智能与半导体领域。中国需加强科技自立、重构产业链,深化与欧洲及东盟的合作,同时特朗普的孤立主义或削弱美国盟友的团结,为中国提供合作契机。
特朗普赢得美国总统选举,港大经管学院副院长及亚洲环球研究所总监邓希炜教授早前接受香港电台访问时,深入分析特朗普再次当选的潜在影响。他指出,特朗普主张“美国优先”,虽然若实施高关税和贸易战,将对全球产业链造成冲击,但是对金融市场可能带来利好消息,因为特朗普倾向通过减息,利用货币政策推动经济发展。 邓教授强调,加征关税对中国出口的影响无疑存在,但影响不会过于重大。他指出,特朗普面临的矛盾在于通胀压力与减息之间的挣扎。他认为,特朗普对中国的加关税将确定会实施,但未必如他所言加至60%。他也提到对盟友的10%关税,短期内特朗普不会轻易推行。
目前,香港的电子商务销售仅占全港零售额的8%,远低于其他电商发达市场如内地、英国和韩国,可见香港在电子商务以至数字贸易方面仍有很大发展空间。香港应把握未来贸易新趋势,重点发展贸易数字化, 以实践贸易无纸化、发展跨境电子商务和数字服务贸易为三大KPI。