港大经管学院副院长(对外事务)邓希炜教授表示,由于地缘政治因素,加上内地本土市场过度竞争,不少当地龙头企业希望「出海」开拓市场。他举例,近期来港挂牌的美的集团(00300)及顺丰(06936)在内地上市多年,择此时机在港挂牌,希望作全球部署。他直言,若只在上海或北京设置总部,内地资本管制下,资金较难投资外地,「几十亿资金难以到马来西亚或越南」;以香港作为地区总部,就可集资及投资外地市场,扩展商业版图。
3917 0029
3917 4388
MB 335/ KK 920
- PhD: MIT
- Bachelor: UCLA
Heiwai Tang is Victor and William Fung Professor in Economics, Director of the Asia Global Institute and HKU APEC Study Center, as well as the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong Kong (HKU). Prior to joining HKU, he was tenured Associate Professor of International Economics at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of Johns Hopkins University. He is also affiliated with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (U.S.), the Center of Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESIfo, Germany), the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany) and the Globalization and Economic Policy Center (U.K.) as a research fellow. He has been a consultant to the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the United Nations, and the Asian Development Bank; and held visiting positions at the IMF, Stanford, MIT, Harvard. He is currently an associate editor of the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Comparative Economics and the China Economic Review. Since 2021, he has served on a number of public bodies, including the Currency Board Sub-Committee of the HKMA’s Exchange Fund Advisory Committee and the Minimum Wage Commission in Hong Kong.
Heiwai holds a Ph.D. in economics from MIT and a Bachelor of Science in mathematics from UCLA. His research interests span a wide range of theoretical and empirical topics in international trade, with a specific focus on production networks, global value chains, and China. His research has been published in leading journals in economics, including American Economic Review and Journal of International Economics. His research and opinions have been covered by BBC, Financial Times, New York Times, Al Jazeera, Foreign Policy, South China Morning Post, and various think tanks such as the Brookings Institution and the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Columbia-LBS-HKU EMBA: The New World Order
HKU-PKU DBA: Frontiers in Economics Research
Fudan-HKU IMBA: The New World Order
HKU: Undergraduate Common Core – China in the Global Economy; MBA – Global Economy; Master of Economics – Economic Policy
International Trade, Global Value Chains, Development Economics
- “Trade Networks and Firm Value: Evidence from the US-China Trade War,” Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. (with Yi Huang, Chen Lin, and Sibo Liu)
- “Currency Carry Trade by Trucks: The Curious Case of China’s Massive Imports from Itself”, Review of Finance, 27(2), March 2023, pp. 469–493. (with Xuepeng Liu, Zhi Wang, and Shang-Jin Wei)
- “Do Multinationals Transfer Culture? Evidence on Female Employment in China”, Journal of International Economics, 133, Nov 2021, 103518. (with Yifan Zhang)
- “Domestic Segment of Global Value Chains in China under State Capitalism”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 48(4), Dec 2020, pp. 797-821. (with Fei Wang and Zhi Wang)
- “Why is China Investing in Africa? Evidence from the Firm Level”, World Bank Economic Review, 32(3), Oct 2018, pp. 610-632. (with Wenjie Chen and David Dollar)
- “Are Foreign Firms Favored in China? Firm-level Evidence on the Collection of Value-Added Tax”, Journal of International Business Policy, 1(2), Inaugural Issue, Jun 2018, pp. 71-91. (with Yasheng Huang)
- “Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China”, American Economic Review, 106(6), Jun 2016, pp. 1402-1436. (with Hiau Looi Kee)
- “Learning to Export from Neighbors”, Journal of International Economics, 94(1), Sep 2014, pp. 67-84. (with Ana Fernandes)
- “Factor Intensity, Product Switching, and Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Exporters”, Journal of International Economics, 92(2), Mar 2014, pp. 349-362. (with Yue Ma and Yifan Zhang)
- “International Politics and Import Diversification”, Journal of Law and Economics, 56(4), Nov 2013, pp. 1091-1121. (with Sergey Mityakov and Kevin Tsui)
- “Determinants of Vertical Integration in Export Processing: Theory and Evidence from China”, Journal of Development Economics, 99(2), Nov 2012, pp. 396-414. (with Ana Fernandes)
- “Labor Market Institutions, Firm-specific Skills, and Trade Patterns”, Journal of International Economics, 87(2), Jul 2012, pp. 337-351.
- APEC Study Center Financial Support from the HKSAR Government, PI, HKD 2,500,000, 2022-2027
- HKU Knowledge Exchange Grant, PI, HKD 497,000, 2023
- Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 418,975, 2022-2024
- Committee of 100 Next Generation Leader, 2018
- Richard Paul Richman Center for Business, Law, and Public Policy Grant, Columbia University, Co-PI, USD 14,500.
- Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada Insight Grant, Co-Investigator, CAD 78,736
- Student-Elected Best Professor of the Master of International Econ and Finance Program, JHU SAIS, 2016-2017
- Alcoa Foundation Grant, Co-PI, USD 500,000, 2016-2019
- Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 364,378, 2017-2019
- Outstanding Referee Journal of International Economics, 2014-2017.
- Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 336,462, 2011-2013
- The Nuffield Foundation Social Science Grant, SGS/36581, Co-PI, £12,000, 2009-2011
- MIT Presidential Fellowship, 2002-2003
- Securities and Futures Appeals Tribunal of the HKSAR government, member, 2023 –
- Panel of Arbitrators of the Labour Relations Ordinance, HKSAR, member, 2023 –
- Insurance Authority in Hong Kong SAR, Member of the Industry Advisory Committee, 2022 –
- Telecommunications Appeal Board of the HKSAR Government, Member, 2022 –
- Currency Board Sub-Committee of the HKMA Exchange Fund Advisory Committee, Member, 2021-
- Minimum Wage Commission in Hong Kong SAR, Member, 2021 –
- Pacific Economic Review, Managing Editor, 2022 –
- Journal of International Economics, Associate Editor, 2019 – 2022
- China Economic Review, Associate Editor, 2018 –
- Journal of Comparative Economics, Associate Editor, 2017 – 2023
- China Economics Summer Institute, Academic Committee Member, 2017 –
- International Finance Corporation (IFC), Consultant, 2017 –
- United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Consultant, 2016 – 2017
- Asian Development Bank, Consultant, 2016 – 2017
- IMF, Research Department, Visiting Scholar, 2015 – 2016
- World Bank, Consultant, 2013 – 2017
香港经济自二战后尽管经历多次起伏,其国际金融及贸易中心地位,依然在世界经济舞台上历久不衰。 然而,面对近年全球经济增长放缓、区域竞争激烈及地缘政治局势恶化,香港作为高度外向型的自由经济体,我们不能因为过去均能化危为机便心存侥幸。 时移世易,香港现时面对人口老化等诸多内忧,加上外部挑战,未必如昔日般「耐寒」。
邓希炜教授在接受TVB Pearl节目的访问时表示,贸易战已恶化,科技领域(如半导体、人工智能和机器人技术)明显出现脱钩现象。 然而,他认为香港仍然可以把握未来的机遇,将这座城市定位为供应链管理和专业服务(如金融服务和税务谘询)的中心。
在最近接受CNA访问时,港大经管学院副院长(对外事务), 亚洲环球研究所总监邓希炜教授表示,他对特朗普将提高对中国的关税并不感到惊讶。他预期,特朗普会逐步提高对中国的关税,以增强美国的谈判权力。 提高关税是一种低效的措施,因为这将增加美国的生产成本和商品价格。他认为,美国对墨西哥的关税可能不会持续太久,因为两国政府可能很快就会达成协议,考虑到墨西哥的经济规模相对较小,但对美国的出口依赖程度更高。
随着特朗普确定重返白宫,中美关系将进一步紧张。港大经管学院副院长及亚洲环球研究所总监邓希炜教授在接受《信报财经》访问时指出,特朗普新内阁的鹰派基调可能加强对中国在贸易、科技及地缘政治方面的打压。在全球博弈中,中国需拉拢盟友与深化内需,而香港需稳固其「中西桥梁」的角色。 全球正式进入「一球两制」时代 邓教授指出,全球科技格局已进入「一球两制」时代,即美国主导的技术生态与中国的独立体系分庭抗礼。特朗普的政策或加速科技脱钩,尤其是在人工智能与半导体领域。中国需加强科技自立、重构产业链,深化与欧洲及东盟的合作,同时特朗普的孤立主义或削弱美国盟友的团结,为中国提供合作契机。
特朗普赢得美国总统选举,港大经管学院副院长及亚洲环球研究所总监邓希炜教授早前接受香港电台访问时,深入分析特朗普再次当选的潜在影响。他指出,特朗普主张“美国优先”,虽然若实施高关税和贸易战,将对全球产业链造成冲击,但是对金融市场可能带来利好消息,因为特朗普倾向通过减息,利用货币政策推动经济发展。 邓教授强调,加征关税对中国出口的影响无疑存在,但影响不会过于重大。他指出,特朗普面临的矛盾在于通胀压力与减息之间的挣扎。他认为,特朗普对中国的加关税将确定会实施,但未必如他所言加至60%。他也提到对盟友的10%关税,短期内特朗普不会轻易推行。
目前,香港的电子商务销售仅占全港零售额的8%,远低于其他电商发达市场如内地、英国和韩国,可见香港在电子商务以至数字贸易方面仍有很大发展空间。香港应把握未来贸易新趋势,重点发展贸易数字化, 以实践贸易无纸化、发展跨境电子商务和数字服务贸易为三大KPI。
目前,香港的电子商务销售仅占全港零售额的8%,远低于其他电商发达市场如内地、英国和韩国,可见香港在电子商务以至数字贸易方面仍有很大发展空间。香港应把握未来贸易新趋势,重点发展贸易数字化, 以实践贸易无纸化、发展跨境电子商务和数字服务贸易为三大KPI。
港大经管学院副院长(对外事务)邓希炜教授认为,香港目前面临的问题,不少属于过往多年累积的结构性问题,包括大财团垄断及产业单一化,经济上过于依赖金融业,中央政府已提出香港要发展多元产业,包括推动高新科技的发展,并提升与大湾区合作,但这些改革目标相信受限于移民潮等因素导致的人才流失,以及公务员因循守旧文化,而未能有所突破。 他建议,本港要推动多元化产业,首先需要吸引相关龙头企业来港,这些企业自然能够带动相关人才来港,而港府已有吸引人才政策包括高才通等,也可以进行优化,以产业转型需求为主导,吸引相关专才,包括国际人才,目前这些人才政策吸引的大部分为内地人。同时,本港大学本身在高新科技等方面拥有顶尖的学者,可以透过提升产业互动,令其能够更容易接触到如天使基金等投资者,并便利其创业。
在经济吹淡风时,劳动人口大减,亦可能为失业率「减压」。事关,经济疲弱时,对岗位的需求减少,但刚好劳动市场「少」了近20万的劳动人口,变相帮助「消化」了失业潮。例如企业本应裁员,但有员工移民,变相分子﹙失业人口﹚及分母﹙劳动人口﹚皆减少;又例如,少了的劳动人口,如果他们都是就业人口,意味市场上多了职位空缺,可让原本失业的人填补,令失业率能够保持「稳定」。 港大经管学院副院长(对外事务)邓希炜教授则表示,本港失业率仍维持偏低水平,相信主要由于近年移民潮等因素,令本身劳动人口(分母)及失业人口(分子)均减少所影响,导致市民观感与政府数据出现落差。 但他续称,目前本港企业倒闭情况持续,预计失业率会有上升压力。值得留意的是,香港移民潮流失的不少是出于事业黄金期的壮年人才,而港府近年透过人才计划吸引的多为内地人才,但很多人才都是倾向于先安顿子女在港教育,然后才找工作,不少可能先行从事保险业,出现职业错配情况。