团队

自1983年起，香港一直实施与美元挂的联系汇率制度（联汇制度）。在这40年间，制度运行稳定，顺利应对了多次重大挑战，如1997至1998年的亚洲金融危机和2007至2008年的全球金融危机等。值此制度40周年之际，本文将探讨在新的国际经济形势下联汇制度的现状与发展。基于最新国际经济学研究成果，通过量化指标，分析不同汇率制度对香港的利弊。

We propose and estimate a quantitative model of exchange rates in which participants in the foreign exchange market are intermediaries subject to value-at-risk (VaR) constraints. Higher volatility translates into tighter VaR constraints, and intermediaries require higher returns to hold foreign assets. Therefore, the foreign currency is expected to appreciate. The model quantitatively resolves the Backus–Smith puzzle, the forward premium puzzle, and the exchange rate volatility puzzle and explains deviations from the covered interest rate parity. Moreover, the model implies both contemporaneous and predictive relations between proxies of leverage constraint tightness and exchange rates. These implications are supported in the data.

方博士是一位研究汇率和国际金融的学者。方博士为人随和，他相信，面对生活丶教学，以及研究中的起落，都应努力处之泰然。