团队

2025年8月1日，香港《稳定币条例》生效，标志著中国将逐步参与稳定币市场，并探索如何通过香港这一离岸金融中心，利用稳定币推动人民币国际化。 要回答这一问题，我们需要在当前市场情绪高涨的背景中，理性、客观地理解离岸人民币稳定币的发展逻辑。

This paper studies whether investor composition affects the sovereign debt market. We construct a data set of sovereign debt holdings by foreign and domestic bank, nonbank private and official investors for 101 countries across three decades. Compared with other investors, private nonbank investors absorb a disproportionate share of the debt supply, and their demand for emerging market debt is most price responsive. A counterfactual analysis of emerging market sovereigns shows a 10% increase in debt leads to a 5.8% yield increase but an outsized 8.4% increase without nonbank investors. We conclude that sovereigns are vulnerable to the loss of nonbanks.

自1983年起，香港一直实施与美元挂的联系汇率制度（联汇制度）。在这40年间，制度运行稳定，顺利应对了多次重大挑战，如1997至1998年的亚洲金融危机和2007至2008年的全球金融危机等。值此制度40周年之际，本文将探讨在新的国际经济形势下联汇制度的现状与发展。基于最新国际经济学研究成果，通过量化指标，分析不同汇率制度对香港的利弊。

We propose and estimate a quantitative model of exchange rates in which participants in the foreign exchange market are intermediaries subject to value-at-risk (VaR) constraints. Higher volatility translates into tighter VaR constraints, and intermediaries require higher returns to hold foreign assets. Therefore, the foreign currency is expected to appreciate. The model quantitatively resolves the Backus–Smith puzzle, the forward premium puzzle, and the exchange rate volatility puzzle and explains deviations from the covered interest rate parity. Moreover, the model implies both contemporaneous and predictive relations between proxies of leverage constraint tightness and exchange rates. These implications are supported in the data.