团队

港大经管学院金融学讲座教授陈志武表示，香港经济必然受到影响，因为美国可能会提高对中国商品的关税，并加强对技术转移。但他预计新关税上限将设定在60%。 教授指出，特朗普的主要支持者之一、科技亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克，可能在特朗普的第二任期内对与中国相关的政策制定起到缓和作用。他还预计，北京将采取更积极的刺激措施，以应对更大的地缘政治不确定性。

“第三季度的数据显示可能会令人失望，表现不及第二季度4.7%的同比增长，这使得北京面临更多困境，”香港大学金融学教授陈志武表示。 “这就是为什么北京在第三季度末积极推出刺激措施。”

安永调查显示，中国电动车企业应发挥成本优势拓展海外，惟品牌信任及知名度不足是挑战。消费者信任度差异体现于年龄，讲座教授陈志武指出年轻群体对中国品牌的信任度反映了对国家的整体印象。

中国各地正倒查一些企业和个人几十年来拖欠的税款，试图解决居高不下的财政赤字并应对日益严重的债务危机。中国税收征管方式的任意性将打击企业的积极性和民营经济的信心。港大经管学院金融学教授陈志武更是提到"中国经济放缓是难以避免的"。

The shrinking salaries of China’s financial professionals have made the jobs in this sector losing lustre. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, commented that such pay cuts may drive away skilled financial professionals, and depress supply of risk capital and other financial services. He said, “[Over time], tech start-ups and the real economy will also suffer if there is fewer risk capital and financial products to support them.” China’s financial industry used to be providing generous salaries to bankers and financial brokers in a push to incentivise performance and internationalise operations. Prof. Chen said that a market-oriented way is better than top-down directives to decide compensation for financial professionals. “China needs to loosen regulations, increase competition to drive down the price of financial services [to benefit people and businesses],” he said.

Hong Kong is winning back wealthy people thanks to the city’s policy initiatives including tax concessions, top talent visa and residency programs, and the establishment of Family Office Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s assets under management grew 2.1% to HK$31 trillion (US$4 trillion) in 2023. Driven by a strong performance of private banking and wealth management, net fund inflows jumped more than 3 times to nearly HK$390 billion last year. While Singapore stepped up efforts to combat money laundering, it has seen a major shift from the pandemic years since Hong Kong relaxed the quarantine rules and reopened the border with efficient transportation to mainland China cities. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, said the mainland billionaires’ enthusiasm for setting up family office business in Singapore has waned, as they prefer less government checks to their personal wealth. “If Singapore would do as many checks and tighter regulations as the mainland, then why would they want to go there?” Prof. Chen said.

Investment bankers at China International Capital Corp. are pledging their loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party amid reshaped the business and cultural landscape in China. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, a chair professor in finance at HKU Business School, said, “There has been a political redefinition of finance.” He added, “The future of CICC is that there’s no more CICC in a few years’ time”.

Physical bank branches and ATMs have seen their numbers dwindling as the public embraces e-payment platforms and financial institutions cut costs. Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, said, “The banks have found it unnecessary to add branches as they reduce costs.” A refocus on mobile payments among other online transactions, he said, “has in effect served to reduce face-to-face services at banks”.

通过量化历史数据，我们可以看到整个中国社会大致的发展趋势和不同时期主要发展的主旋律。