A Behavioural Economics Analysis of Marathon Finishing Times Using Big Data
Press Release
(June 9, 2019 – Hong Kong)
A team of Faculty of Business and Economics undergraduate students from The University of Hong Kong (HKU) came out top among 24 competing teams in the world’s largest business case competition jointly presented by HSBC and HKU.
Speaking at the prize presentation ceremony of the 12th HSBC/HKU Asia Pacific Business Case Competition (“The Competition”) held on 6 June, Mr Peter Wong, Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, told the students to keep an open mind and think globally.
“The future is about connectivity. It is about people coming together and markets opening. The Greater Bay Area’s integration and the Belt and Road Initiative are key drivers of this direction – they will serve the world as global super-connectors. The people, connections and the flow of ideas is how we make these initiatives a success. The best international talent is needed to connect the world and solve business, environmental and social challenges. At HSBC, the culture of a globally connected community is part of our DNA, and that is why we has been supporting this competition, which connects Asia to the rest of the world.”
The Competition is organised by Asia Case Research Centre (ACRC), Faculty of Business and Economics, HKU. Since 2008, it has attracted over 130,000 university students to participate. The Competition aims to bridge the gap between the real business world and the classroom by challenging students to apply problem-solving, analysis and presentation skills to an actual business situation.
Professor Hongbin Cai, Dean of Faculty of Business and Economics, HKU, said, “It is a pleasure to see some of the brightest business leaders of tomorrow at the 12th edition of this unique competition. Throughout the week, students have had the opportunity to interact with their peers and seasoned business executives from around the world. We are confident that the skills, knowledge and networks gained during their stay will benefit them and the society in the years to come!”
The Competition, took place in Hong Kong from 31 May to 6 June, brought together 24 teams from universities globally and more than 60 senior HSBC executives and international business leaders who volunteered as judges. On 30 May, City University of Hong Kong won the Hong Kong Competition and represented the city in the Asia Pacific Competition.
HSBC is committed to investing in people, shaping talent and nurturing tomorrow’s leaders. In addition to the Competition, HSBC awards more than HKD10 million in scholarships every year to over 200 top tertiary education students. This summer, the Bank will hire about 140 university students as interns in Hong Kong so that they can gain practical industry experience and start building their network while at university.
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Notes to editors:
Results of the HSBC/HKU Asia Pacific Business Case Competition 2019
Champion (USD10,000): The University of Hong Kong
First runner-up (USD5,000): Yonsei University (Korea)
Second runner-up (USD2,000): University of Belgrade (Serbia)
During four rounds of intense competition, the teams demonstrated their understanding of business strategies by achieving creative management solutions. They also participated in team-building and training sessions. Top teams of this year were the 12 titleholders representing HSBC local competitions in Bangladesh, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Mainland China (North and South), Malaysia, Mauritius, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam and France, as well as other invited universities from Canada, Korea, Lebanon, Macau, New Zealand, the Philippines, Serbia, Singapore, Sri Lanka and the USA. For more information, please refer to: http://competition.acrc.hku.hk/
Photos captions:
Mr Peter Wong (the fifth from the left, front row), Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive, The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited and Professor Terry Au (the forth from the left, front row), Vice-President and Pro-Vice-Chancellor (Academic Staffing and Resources), The University of Hong Kong with the university teams at the HSBC/HKU Asia Pacific Business Case Competition prize presentation ceremony.
Mr Peter Wong (middle) and Professor Terry Au (the third from the left) present the Championship Award to the winning team from HKU, coached by the advisor Mr. Albert Fung.
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited is the founding member of the HSBC Group, which serves our customers through four global businesses: Retail Banking and Wealth Management, Commercial Banking, Global Banking and Markets, and Global Private Banking. The Group serves customers worldwide in 66 countries and territories in our geographical regions: Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and Middle East and North Africa. With assets of USD2,659bn at 31 March 2019, HSBC is one of the world’s largest banking and financial services organisations.
Asia Case Research Centre, Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of Hong Kong
Tracing its roots back over a century, The University of Hong Kong’s (“HKU”) 210,000 alumni have been at the forefront of community life, providing leadership in government, in commerce and industry, in education, and in the arts, sciences and culture. Globally, HKU has established a solid reputation as a premier international university and a member of the global family of universities. HKU strives to be Asia’s Global University. Our aspiration at the Faculty of Business and Economics is just as ambitious: to be a premier business school in Asia with significant local, regional and global influence.
The Asia Case Research Centre (“ACRC”) is affiliated with the Faculty of Business and Economics at HKU. It was founded in 1997 to address the need for rich business cases with an Asian focus. The ACRC is committed to the advancement of learning and teaching in business education and strives to promote leading management thinking through research on the latest practices in the Asia Pacific business environment. The ACRC is a major producer of quality business cases. It boasts a repository of nearly 600 business case studies developed in collaboration with many of the region’s leading companies.
At a time when nine out of 10 start-ups fail, it is increasingly important to identify the actions and behaviours that are most likely to lead to successful entrepreneurship.
Recently awarded the Ian Davies Professorship in Ethics, Professor Simon S.K. LAM has been conducting research into ethical leadership and entrepreneurship as well as teaching the subject for many years. He believes that the study of business ethics is crucial to understanding what lies behind the poor management decisions that often result in company failures. His research has shown that ethical behaviour is a key foundation stone for a successful business. Ethical behaviour leads to customer buy-in, resulting in higher sales and more profits, stronger employee loyalty, an increase in the company’s appeal as an employer, enhanced appeal to investors who know their money will be wisely spent, and a stronger company reputation.
There is a Chinese saying that goes: “become rich, then be a paragon of virtue (發財立品)”. Professor Lam, however, thinks the opposite. “My research provides strong and clear evidence showing that the ethical behaviour of entrepreneurs can bring substantial and significant benefits to their companies. Start-ups will have a higher survival rate when the management philosophy of the founders is based on ethical practices and behaviour,” he says.
Professor Lam has published 17 A-grade management journal papers in his research areas as well as a best-selling book, “Entrepreneurial Quotient”, published in 2018. “Having conducted years of in-depth research of these cases, I have created a highly practical ‘Entrepreneurial Quotient’ system which has become a pocket guide manual that readers can carry with them for reference on their entrepreneurial journey,” he explains.
Professor Lam is Professor of Management at FBE, as well as Director of the Centre of Asian Entrepreneurship and Business Values, and Head of the Faculty’s Management and Strategy Area. He is also a senior editor of the Asia Pacific Journal of Management.
The Ian Davies Professorship in Ethics espouses the qualities of integrity, the spirit and principles of ethics and the sharing of knowledge gained for the betterment of society.
2018年柏林馬拉松剛在上星期日舉行（9月16日），圓滿結束。肯雅選手Eliud Kipchoge打破世界馬拉松紀錄，以2:01:39（2小時1分39秒）跑畢全程42.195公里。新紀錄比上一次紀錄快1分18秒（該紀錄保持者是另一位肯雅選手Dennis Kimetto）。
柏林馬拉松賽道被譽為全世界最快馬拉松賽道，最近7次世界紀錄均在柏林馬拉松創造。此外，柏林馬拉松是世界六大馬拉松之一，其餘五大為東京、波士頓、倫敦、芝加哥和紐約市馬拉松。
「渣打香港馬拉松」（跑友暱稱為「渣馬」）是國際田聯認可的金級道路賽事。「渣馬2019」將於2019年2月17日舉行，當天共有7項賽事：馬拉松、半馬拉松（21.0975公里）、10公里、10公里輪椅賽、3公里輪椅賽、少年跑（2.2公里）和家庭跑（1公里）；以上7項賽事參賽者名額分別為22500、19500、32000、20、50、1000和3000。雖然首三項主要賽事（馬拉松、半馬拉松、10公里）名額不少，但本地跑友眾多，能夠成功報名的也非易事。「渣馬2017」首次採用抽籤報名機制，代替沿用多年的先到先得方法，安排較為明智。
首次參加馬拉松（42.195公里），目標很可能只是在比賽時限內完成賽事（渣馬2019 時限為6小時）。完成賽事後，參賽者心情想必十分複雜：既為能成功征服長途賽程而高興，又不禁質疑為何要令身體承受不必要的痛楚，甚至受傷？跑友常說：「沒有奇蹟，只有累積」，亦即跑馬拉松講求訓練有素。有人完成初馬後甚至誓言不再參賽，可見他們心情如何複雜而矛盾，雖然其中不少人後來都成為馬拉松愛好者（渣馬馬拉松參賽人數每年持續上升）。
大數據時代特點
完成初馬後，不少跑友開始對自己有所要求，而定下完賽時間目標，常以整點內（如4小時內或跑友所謂sub 4）或半點內（如3.5小時內或sub 3:30）為準；目標通常是sub 6、sub 5:30、sub 5、sub 4:30、sub 4、sub 3:30、以至sub 3。
業餘跑手達到sub 3已可算甚高水平，對一般跑友而言已算極限。香港現役馬拉松選手徐志堅在剛落幕的柏林馬拉松打破香港華人馬拉松紀錄，新紀錄為2:24:43（「鳴槍時間」），而「晶片時間」是 2:24:38。對上一次紀錄2:24:52由吳師傅吳輝揚保持超過26年；吳師傅是終身運動好榜樣，現在仍然活躍參與長跑賽事。
現代馬拉松比賽採用晶片計時，是一種無線射頻識別技術。初時所有參賽者每人均獲發一枚晶片，以供自行繫於鞋帶上，但如今晶片大都預先附在號碼布上，供參賽者佩戴在身上以資識別，並能準確計算參賽者全程所花實際時間，亦即所謂「晶片時間」。
晶片時間有別於「鳴槍時間」，後者由大會鳴槍一刻開始計時。除非起跑時在起跑線上，否則晶片時間慢於鳴槍時間。大型馬拉松比賽參賽人數數以萬計，晶片時間比鳴槍時間慢超過10分鐘甚為普遍。
隨着馬拉松賽事日漸普遍，馬拉松賽事數目和馬拉松參賽人數兩者都持續上升，加上馬拉松賽事現時大多採用晶片計時，馬拉松亦進入大數據時代。
4位行為經濟學家（Allen、Dechow、Pope和Wu）進行一項馬拉松完成時間大數據研究，當中包括接近1000萬個完成時間。他們明白跑友心理，從大數據中研究完成時間在整點內（如sub 4）是否有特別之處。他們證實完成時間明顯集中在整點前4分鐘內（如3:56:00-3:59:59）；在完成時間半點內，他們也得到相同的結果：完成時間明顯集中在半點前4分鐘內（如3:26:00-3:29:59）。
完成長途賽關鍵
他們更運用先進的方法，以「反事實分析」（counterfactual analysis），進一步量化以上研究結果。根據他們的估算，完成時間在整點內一般比完成時間在半點內較為集中，而最明顯的是sub 3。為了sub 3，可以令sub 3完成者「增加」24.2%。
以同一方法，他們估算sub 4、sub 5、sub 6完成者分別「增加」13%、5.5%和3.2%；而sub 3:30、sub 4:30、sub 5:30完成者分別「增加」10.8%、4.5%、2.1%（注意，以上估算純屬根據他們的數據和反事實分析的結果）。
長跑，尤其是馬拉松，講求平均配速。除了馬拉松完成時間，上述4位行為經濟學家亦分析馬拉松分段時間，當中包括10公里分段、半馬拉松分段、30公里分段和40公里分段時間。以4小時馬拉松完成時間為例，10公里平均配速、半馬拉松平均配速、30公里平均配速、40公里平均配速分段時間，分別為56.88、120、170.64、227.52分鐘。他們證實分段時間明顯集中在整點或半點平均配速內；這結果確認平均配速的重要性。
跑馬拉松做到平均配速已經不易，更理想是在跑完40公里後稍為提速，做到後半分段比前半分段還要快，亦即所謂「負分段」（negative split）。但理論歸理論，實際上到底有差別。
4位行為經濟學家發現，馬拉松參賽者在最後2.195公里路程內跌速十分普遍，其中包括在整點內和半點內完成者；雖然整點內和半點內完成者也在最後2.195公里跌速，但他們力保不失，跌速比其他完成者少。
綜合以上結果，他們得出以下結論。雖然大多數成功在整點內或半點內完成馬拉松的跑手做不到負分段，但在前40公里平均配速和在最後2.195公里路程內力保不失，減少跌速，有助不少跑手完成心願。
各位讀者、跑友若對上述研究感興趣，不妨參閱以下文章：Reference-Dependent Preferences: Evidence from Marathon Runners, Management Science, Vol. 63, No. 6, June 2017, pp. 1657-1672。
程騰歡 香港大學經濟及工商管理學院副教授、南區長跑會前主席
（本文同時於二零一八年九月十九日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）
