学术论文

This paper provides a simple unified analysis of optimal interval division problems. My primitive is a cell function that assigns a value to each subinterval (cell). Submodular cell functions conveniently imply the property of decreasing marginal returns. Also, for coarse decision problems, optimal cutoffs commonly increase as prior belief shifts upward. Its implications on language and efficient menus are discussed.

This paper studies how the two types of uncertainty due to ignorance, parameter and model uncertainty, jointly affect strategic consumption-portfolio rules, precautionary savings, and welfare. We incorporate these two types of uncertainty into a recursive utility version of a canonical Merton (1971) model with uninsurable labor income and unknown income growth, and derive analytical solutions and testable implications. We show that the interaction between the two types of uncertainty plays a key role in determining the demand for precautionary savings and risky assets. We derive formulas to evaluate both marginal and total welfare costs of ignorance-induced uncertainty and show they are significant for plausible parameter values.

由于价格资讯在消费者决策中发挥了关键作用，本研究关注消费者购买决策过程中，产品列表广告 (PLA) 的价格排名对消费者点击以及购买决策的影响，以及两个关键字属性的调节效应。本研究基于一家大型电子购物平台的广告数据以及模拟实验数据，进行基于层级贝氏模型的实证分析。我们发现, 在同时展示的几个产品列表广告中，处在购买决策的早期的消费者会倾向点击极端价格（即最高或最低）的产品，并将其用作参考点来快速评估其他选项。相比之下，处在购买决策的后期的消费者会倾向于点击并购买价格适中的产品。这样是由于这类消费者会在价格和质量之间作出取舍而选择一个中庸的产品。关键词的属性会进一步影响价格排名对于消费者决策的作用。对于具体关键词所对应的产品列表广告，价格排名的影响会被减弱；对于流行的关键词所对应的产品列表广告，广告排名的作用则会被加强。本文的研究结果为企业了解价格信息在产品列表广告中所扮演的角色，以及如何制定更有效广告策略带来了新的启示。

团队合作的一大好处是能够促进成员交流，并整合不同范畴的知识、经验和意见。然而，人口统计的特质——例如种族、性别和职能背景——可能会在多元群体的成员之间产生不对称的影响，原因是这些人口特征通常与社会地位差异相关。在此研究中，我们探讨领导者的凝视行为如何减少多元群体中成员影响力的差异。我们从两项研究中发现，社会地位高的成员一般在群体决策过程中有更大影响力，然而当领导者对社会地位较低的成员增加视线上的注意力时，这种不对称影响模式会减弱。领导者的凝视行为减少成员影响力的差异，在集体决策过程中却提升群体信息的阐述和团队表现。本研究对领导者的视觉注意力、多元性、群体决策过程和团体表现，进行理论和实践的探讨。

透过分析英国的官方管理的全面数据，我们研究政府债券市场中不同类型投资者的交易行为。我们的数据涵盖英国二级市场几乎所有国债交易，同时我们可以观测到每笔交易的详细信息，包括交易双方的身份。我们发现，对冲基金的每日交易可预测到未来一至五天的英国国债回报率，然而这个预测在一个月之后出现反转。这种短期回报的可预测性，部分成因在于对冲基金能预测其他投资者的投资行为。我们同时发现公募基金的交易也可预示英国国债券的回报率，这个预测率时间可持续达一至两个月并且不会出现发现转。根据我们的深入研究，我们发现公募基金的预测率部分原因是由于公募基金能够预测短期利率的变化。

This study assesses a new mechanism, the deposit channel, in the transmission of interest rate shock to household consumption using an administrative panel data set of financial transactions for Turkey. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in consumers' adherence to the Islamic laws that forbid earning interest and employs a standard difference-in-difference design. Following an unanticipated announcement of interest rate hike, rate-sensitive consumers significantly reduce their overall spending, and the response persists throughout the post-announcement period. The response of debt payment, disparate exposure to inflation, exchange rate, and the demographic difference can hardly fully account for the documented consumption response heterogeneity.

From 1580, the Jesuits introduced European sciences to China--an autarkic civilization whose intelligentsia was dominated by Confucian literati. Drawing upon prefectural distributions of the Jesuits and Chinese scientific works, this paper demonstrates that the Jesuits stimulated Confucian literati to study science. On average, the literati’s scientific works increased four times in prefectures with Jesuit scientists after 1580. But this effect shrank after the Jesuits were expelled by the emperor of China in 1723. Since China’s scholar-official system remained unchanged, the literati’s scientific research aimed to serve the needs of statecraft rather than translating into economic progress.

After peaking around the mid-eighteenth century, grain market integration in China declined by a colossal 80 percent amid a twofold increase in population and remained at low levels for well over a century. Markets only resumed their growth momentum after the largest peasant revolt—the Taiping Rebellion—wiped out roughly one-sixth of the Chinese population starting 1851. This U-shaped pattern of grain market integration distinguished China from Europe in their trajectories of market development. Using grain prices to divide China into grain-deficit and grain-surplus regions, we find that the negative relationship between population growth and market integration originated from the grain-surplus-cum-exporting regions.

环境保护一直普遍被视为国家的责任，但在金融业界，其实早已出现如绿色投资等以市场为基础的解决方案。目前鲜有研究去分析绿色投资会否影响企业环境绩效，以及国家政策如何调节这个影响。 我们以制度逻辑的角度，透过探索促使逻辑和实践相容的因素，来拓展制度复杂性的研究。我们的理论是, 作为一种以金融为手段和以环境保护为目标的新型混合实践模式，绿色投资的成功取决于这种混合能否被合理化。绿色投资的合理性，很可能会被其他混合实践模式所影响。 是次研究分析了来自20个国家，共3,706间企业在2002年至2013年间的面板数据。研究发现每个国家的绿色投资规模会促进企业层面的环境绩效。然而，若这个国家有强而有力的环保政策，会削弱绿色投资与企业环境绩效之间的正向关系。这个国家若有强大的股东保护政策，则会加强这种关系。我们致力研究制度的复杂性、逻辑相容和公私营合作，以达至最佳社会利益。