学术论文

Interorganizational projects often suffer disruptions that require participating organizations to adapt in order to restore project operations. We study the role of communication style in facilitating adaptation to such disruptions. Whereas the literature on interorganizational communication has emphasized communication mode and frequency, we study the content and features of written communication in seven U.K. construction projects. Communication style mattered for adaptation quality in these projects, and we found that several properties of communication style were particularly important for adaptation: cost and information orientation, as well as informality, precision and authenticity. Moreover, managerial slack and organizational reputation were important precursors of communication style. These results provide novel insights into the role of communication style in adaptation to interorganizational project disruptions. We discuss the implications of these insights for research on interorganizational projects in operations and supply chain management.

这项研究指出公司的债务会削弱员工相关奖励及损害士气。我们建立了一个动态模型，研究一名经理运用有限的财政资源，同时向债权人还款及激励员工士气。若该名经理可以转移或不正当地使用公司收入，公司的债务会减低员工达成既定奖励目标的意欲，导致其工作效率降低。在平均利润最大化的情况下，公司按优次偿还债务，使员工的工作效率及工资逐步提升。即使公司已完全还清债务，此动态仍会持续。此外，我们发现一间公司的财务杠杆与激励员工士气的措施、工资及生产力属反比关联，这与动态模型的分析相符。

Building on the behavioral theory of the firm and institutional view, we examine how performance feedback (i.e., a focal firm’s performance relative to its industry peers) affects export intensity and how institution-related factors moderate this relationship. Using a sample of Chinese private manufacturing firms, we find that positive performance feedback lowers export intensity while the relationship between negative performance feedback and export intensity is insignificant. Moreover, outperforming firms are likely to decrease their export intensity even more when they are located in regions of better institutional development or have political connections. Underperforming firms with political connections tend to increase their export intensity. These findings enrich our understanding of the export behavior of emerging market firms.

为了保持竞争力，高科技制造商不仅经常从供应商采购新技术，也需向供应商提供资金援助以便他们能尽快将新技术转化为可用的部件或生产工具。我们的研究关注以下情形。一个制造商考虑向一家财政拮据的供应商采购一项全新但未发展成熟的技术，或仅当新技术开发失败时，才向现有供应商采购基于一项成熟技术的部件。制造商可以选择以股权或贷款的形式注资来支持开发新技术。制造商需要对投资策略作出取舍，因为这不但会影响新供应商的努力水平和成功概率，还会影响现有供应商改进成熟技术的努力。正如债务融资文献所述，我们发现贷款投资策略会因为供应商的有限责任而伴随成本转移效应，因此通常会提升新技术成功的概率。然而，由于制造商与新供应商之间除了有投资关系以外，也有采购关系，因此我们发现股权投资策略会伴随利润分享效应，而这一点在传统的股权发行文献中未有提及。若新供应商技术实力雄厚，利润分享效应会胜过成本转移效应并带来更高的技术成功概率。然而，我们亦发现提高技术成功概率的策略未必会为制造商带来更高的回报。一方面，成本转移效应令制造商能在维持一定程度的技术成功概率的同时实现更低的采购成本，因此即使贷款策略会导致技术成功概率较低，但仍会成为制造商采用的方案。另一方面，当现有供应商能有效降低成本时，利用贷款来支持开发新技术或会引致新供应商过度努力而现有供应商努力不足，因此适得其反。

当代资讯科技(IT) 项目团队要求成员提供新颖想法并加以落实，以应对不断变化的资讯科技和业务需求。另外，新冠疫情限制商务出行，更多的公司必须允许有多学科背景的、分布在多个地点的IT人才组成项目团队来开发新的IT解决方案。在这个团队，个体成员需要在创意构思(IG) 阶段利用与他人不同的专业知识提出新颖的想法，然后在创意实施(II) 阶段加以落实，这称为IGII过程。尽管已有很多研究解释个人创造力，但现存文献甚少提供理论支撑以阐释如何应对职能专长差异性和地理位置分散度所带来的双刃效应——它们是多学科、跨地域IT项目团队的两个基本特质，并与个人创造力和后续绩效息息相关。我们借鉴IGII 框架，提出以交互记忆系统(TMS) 作为合理的团队级解决方案以应对这挑战。经由对35个IT项目团队的141名成员及其主管集成的跨层次数据集进行分析，我们发现在跨学科、跨地域分布的IT 项目团队中，项目团队级的TMS 和地理位置分散度会以交互方式调节团队成员个人的IGII 过程，但在II 和IG两个阶段呈现出有趣的迥异性。

Problem definition: Providing fast and reliable delivery services is key to running a successful online retail business. To achieve a better delivery time guarantee policy, we study how to estimate and promise delivery time for new customer orders in real time. Academic/practical relevance: Delivery time promising is critical to managing customer expectations and improving customer satisfaction. Simply overpromising or underpromising is undesirable because of the negative impacts on short-/long-term sales. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to develop a data-driven framework to predict the distribution of order delivery time and set promised delivery time to customers in a cost-effective way. Methodology: We apply and extend tree-based models to generate distributional forecasts by exploiting the complicated relationship between delivery time and relevant operational predictors. To account for the cost-sensitive decision-making problem structure, we develop a new split rule for quantile regression forests that incorporates an asymmetric loss function in split point selection. We further propose a cost-sensitive decision rule to decide the promised delivery day from the predicted distribution. Results: Our decision rule is proven to be optimal given certain cost structures. Tested on a real-world data set shared from JD.com, our proposed machine learning–based models deliver superior forecasting performance. In addition, we demonstrate that our framework has the potential to provide better promised delivery time in terms of sales, cost, and accuracy as compared with the conventional promised time set by JD.com. Specifically, our simulation results indicate that the proposed delivery time promise policy can improve the sales volume by 6.1% over the current policy. Managerial implications: Through a more accurate estimation of the delivery time distribution, online retailers can strategically set the promised time to maximize customer satisfaction and boost sales. Our data-driven framework reveals the importance of modeling fulfillment operations in delivery time forecasting and integrating the decision-making problem structure with the forecasting model.

我们研究当电动汽车充电设施的供应及需求可能存在空间错配时，政府应如何制定资助政策，以有效地推动电动汽车的普及。电动汽车充电基础设施通常由第三方服务供应商兴建。虽然大多数电动汽车司机因通勤模式及市中心的便利性，更喜欢在市中心使用电动汽车充电设施，但服务供应商为了降低成本以获取最大利润，偏向把充电设施建于郊区。两者对充电设施位置的偏好差异，导致电动汽车充电的整体成本高昂及电动汽车普及率偏低。我们使用简化的博弈论模型，比较三种类型的资助政策：（i）购买电动车补助计划，（ii）按充电设施的使用情况资助服务供应商，以及（iii）按充电设施数量资助服务供应商。我们发现，购买电动车补助计划能有助推动电动汽车的普及，但未能缓解空间错配的问题。相比之下，资助服务供应商可更有效地解决空间错配的问题，并促进电动汽车普及。不过，统一按数量资助充电设施会令空间错配的问题加剧，结果适得其反。在不同的情况下，每项政策都有可能成为最合适的对策，而应资助哪一方（服务供应商还是购买电动汽车的消费者），很大程度上取决于充电设施市场的成本考量，而非电动汽车价格或环境效益。我们提出一种“拼图块分区规则” 来作为制定政策的指引。我们主要考虑两个维度：电动汽车司机的充电成本（主要包括搜寻和耗时）和充电设施的建设成本在不同地区的差异。在一端，如果充电太耗时，或设施太少、太拥挤，则首选资助负责兴建的服务供应商；在另一端，若充电服务方便快捷的话，则首选资助购买电动汽车的消费者；在中间充电成本适中的情况下，只有在市中心兴建充电站的费用较郊区稍高一些时，资助服务供应商才是首选。

This paper provides a general analysis of signaling under double-crossing preferences with a continuum of types. There are natural economic environments where the indifference curves of two types cross twice, such that the celebrated single-crossing property fails to hold. Equilibrium exhibits a threshold type below which types choose actions that are fully revealing and above which they pool in a pairwise fashion, with a gap separating the actions chosen by these two sets of types. The resulting signaling action is quasi-concave in type. We also provide an algorithm to establish equilibrium existence by construction.

Using a representative sample of credit card holders from a leading Chinese commercial bank, we investigate how consumers respond to an unexpected interest rate decrease that automatically reduces interest expenses for all mortgage borrowers in the country and thereby generates significant positive disposable-income shocks. Our difference-in-differences analysis shows that compared with homeowners without mortgage obligations, mortgage borrowers increased their monthly credit card spending by 8.7% after the 230-bps mortgage rate reduction announced in September 2008. We find a significant spending response both immediately after the announcement and during the post-reset period. The credit card delinquency rate also decreased after the mortgage rate reset. Subsequent to an interest-rate increase episode, mortgage borrowers symmetrically reduced their credit card spending. Hand-to-mouth mortgage borrowers experienced a more pronounced spending increase. The debt-service channel plays an important role in transmitting monetary policy—our estimate implies a marginal propensity to consume 0.40–0.54 through credit card spending.