28Oct
金山大學商學院研討會日程, 金融學
“Real Effects of Markets on Politics: Evidence from U.S. Presidential Elections” by Dr. Leming Lin
Wednesday, 28 October 2020 | 9:30 a.m. - 11:00 a.m.
online seminar
Speaker:
Dr. Leming Lin
Assistant Professor of Finance
University of Pittsburgh
Assistant Professor of Finance
University of Pittsburgh
Abstract:
Despite the economic importance of the U.S. stock market, there is strikingly little evidence of its impact on elections. Using county-level variation in stock market participation, we document a causal impact of market returns on election outcomes. High-participation counties are more likely to vote for the incumbent party when the market has performed well relative to low-participation counties. The effect is weaker in Republican-leaning counties and more politically active counties, and comes mostly through the intensive margin rather than affecting turnout. Our findings provide evidence of a novel channel through which stock market fluctuations could be transmitted into the real economy.