媒體報導

數據如山，如何拆解香港的宏觀經濟大局？ 現今數據科學盛行，不同人士透過不同數據，運用不同方法，比較不同參考點，各自達至涇渭分明的結論。何志培博士認為，要掌握經濟的發展大局，需要運用經濟時間序列，以一目了然的圖表作切入點，結合一致的相關理論，才能呈現各個經濟範疇的發展趨向和前景。

現時經濟增長和土地供應量不足，帶動住屋需求和長遠樓價升勢，但由於中美的地緣政治、內地遊客消費模式改變，以及來自粵港澳大灣區競爭日益激烈，令寫字樓和零售店舖的空置率均錄得高水平。香港經濟發展應何去何從？

港大經管學院早前公佈2024年第三季本港經濟的預測，對於略顯低迷的消費氣氛，港大經管學院副院長及亞洲環球研究所總監鄧希煒教授，於接受Now新聞的訪問時指出，投資和消費信心是關鍵。「受財富效應影響，由於短期内股市和樓市狀況形成負面的財富效應，市民投資和消費的信心自然不高，長遠而言要視乎政府三年內的經濟轉型政策，提供新的經濟增長點。」

香港人說不好英語了嗎？2023年EF English First英語能力指標測試報告指出，在亞洲23個國家和地區中，香港排名第4。在亞洲的發達地區之中，則出現兩個對英語取態迥然相異的例子。

The shrinking salaries of China’s financial professionals have made the jobs in this sector losing lustre. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, commented that such pay cuts may drive away skilled financial professionals, and depress supply of risk capital and other financial services. He said, “[Over time], tech start-ups and the real economy will also suffer if there is fewer risk capital and financial products to support them.” China’s financial industry used to be providing generous salaries to bankers and financial brokers in a push to incentivise performance and internationalise operations. Prof. Chen said that a market-oriented way is better than top-down directives to decide compensation for financial professionals. “China needs to loosen regulations, increase competition to drive down the price of financial services [to benefit people and businesses],” he said.

Hong Kong is winning back wealthy people thanks to the city’s policy initiatives including tax concessions, top talent visa and residency programs, and the establishment of Family Office Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s assets under management grew 2.1% to HK$31 trillion (US$4 trillion) in 2023. Driven by a strong performance of private banking and wealth management, net fund inflows jumped more than 3 times to nearly HK$390 billion last year. While Singapore stepped up efforts to combat money laundering, it has seen a major shift from the pandemic years since Hong Kong relaxed the quarantine rules and reopened the border with efficient transportation to mainland China cities. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, said the mainland billionaires’ enthusiasm for setting up family office business in Singapore has waned, as they prefer less government checks to their personal wealth. “If Singapore would do as many checks and tighter regulations as the mainland, then why would they want to go there?” Prof. Chen said.

Investment bankers at China International Capital Corp. are pledging their loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party amid reshaped the business and cultural landscape in China. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, a chair professor in finance at HKU Business School, said, “There has been a political redefinition of finance.” He added, “The future of CICC is that there’s no more CICC in a few years’ time”.

A股上市公司逐漸形成現金分紅的氛圍，相關監管和稅務政策亦成為投資者關注的議題。近年，中國證監會發布了多項措施，強化對上市公司現金分紅的監管，並推動上市公司提高分紅比率，這體現了監管者致力保障個人投資者利益。

過去45年，中國經濟年均增長率超過8%，擁有龐大的國內市場,但其消費僅佔GDP的39%，為全球最低之一。中國能否維持6%或7%的增長率呢？ 港大經管學院副院長及亞洲環球研究所總監鄧希煒教授認為,中國仍然有經濟增長潛力，但由於人口老齡化及民眾追求長壽導致高儲蓄率，因此目前已變得非常困難。鄧教授建議三項關鍵措施以重整中國經濟:改善公共醫療質素及減低醫療開支、促進更多以內需主導的增長，以及為低收入群創造更多就業機會，以解決城鄉收入差距問題。