Heiwai TANG
Prof. Heiwai TANG
經濟學
Associate Dean (External Relations)
Victor and William Fung Professor in Economics (馮國經馮國綸基金教授 (經濟學))
Director, Asia Global Institute
Director, APEC Study Center
Associate Director, Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy

3917 0029
3917 4388

MB 335/ KK 920

Academic & Professional Qualification
  • PhD: MIT
  • Bachelor: UCLA
Biography

Heiwai Tang is Victor and William Fung Professor in Economics, Director of the Asia Global Institute and HKU APEC Study Center, as well as the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong Kong (HKU). Prior to joining HKU, he was tenured Associate Professor of International Economics at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of Johns Hopkins University. He is also affiliated with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (U.S.), the Center of Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESIfo, Germany), the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany) and the Globalization and Economic Policy Center (U.K.) as a research fellow. He has been a consultant to the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the United Nations, and the Asian Development Bank; and held visiting positions at the IMF, Stanford, MIT, Harvard. He is currently an associate editor of the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Comparative Economics and the China Economic Review. Since 2021, he has served on a number of public bodies, including the Currency Board Sub-Committee of the HKMA’s Exchange Fund Advisory Committee and the Minimum Wage Commission in Hong Kong.

Heiwai holds a Ph.D. in economics from MIT and a Bachelor of Science in mathematics from UCLA. His research interests span a wide range of theoretical and empirical topics in international trade, with a specific focus on production networks, global value chains, and China. His research has been published in leading journals in economics, including American Economic Review and Journal of International Economics. His research and opinions have been covered by BBC, Financial Times, New York Times, Al Jazeera, Foreign Policy, South China Morning Post, and various think tanks such as the Brookings Institution and the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Teaching

Columbia-LBS-HKU EMBA: The New World Order

HKU-PKU DBA: Frontiers in Economics Research

Fudan-HKU IMBA: The New World Order

HKU: Undergraduate Common Core – China in the Global Economy; MBA – Global Economy; Master of Economics – Economic Policy

Research Interest

International Trade, Global Value Chains, Development Economics

Selected Publications
  • “Trade Networks and Firm Value: Evidence from the US-China Trade War,” Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. (with Yi Huang, Chen Lin, and Sibo Liu)
  • “Currency Carry Trade by Trucks: The Curious Case of China’s Massive Imports from Itself”, Review of Finance, 27(2), March 2023, pp. 469–493. (with Xuepeng Liu, Zhi Wang, and Shang-Jin Wei)
  • “Do Multinationals Transfer Culture? Evidence on Female Employment in China”, Journal of International Economics, 133, Nov 2021, 103518. (with Yifan Zhang)
  • “Domestic Segment of Global Value Chains in China under State Capitalism”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 48(4), Dec 2020, pp. 797-821. (with Fei Wang and Zhi Wang)
  • “Why is China Investing in Africa? Evidence from the Firm Level”, World Bank Economic Review, 32(3), Oct 2018, pp. 610-632. (with Wenjie Chen and David Dollar)
  • “Are Foreign Firms Favored in China? Firm-level Evidence on the Collection of Value-Added Tax”, Journal of International Business Policy, 1(2), Inaugural Issue, Jun 2018, pp. 71-91. (with Yasheng Huang)
  • “Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China”, American Economic Review, 106(6), Jun 2016, pp. 1402-1436. (with Hiau Looi Kee)
  • “Learning to Export from Neighbors”, Journal of International Economics, 94(1), Sep 2014, pp. 67-84. (with Ana Fernandes)
  • “Factor Intensity, Product Switching, and Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Exporters”, Journal of International Economics, 92(2), Mar 2014, pp. 349-362. (with Yue Ma and Yifan Zhang)
  • “International Politics and Import Diversification”, Journal of Law and Economics, 56(4), Nov 2013, pp. 1091-1121. (with Sergey Mityakov and Kevin Tsui)
  • “Determinants of Vertical Integration in Export Processing: Theory and Evidence from China”, Journal of Development Economics, 99(2), Nov 2012, pp. 396-414. (with Ana Fernandes)
  • “Labor Market Institutions, Firm-specific Skills, and Trade Patterns”, Journal of International Economics, 87(2), Jul 2012, pp. 337-351.
Awards and Honours
  • APEC Study Center Financial Support from the HKSAR Government, PI, HKD 2,500,000, 2022-2027
  • HKU Knowledge Exchange Grant, PI, HKD 497,000, 2023
  • Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 418,975, 2022-2024
  • Committee of 100 Next Generation Leader, 2018
  • Richard Paul Richman Center for Business, Law, and Public Policy Grant, Columbia University, Co-PI, USD 14,500.
  • Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada Insight Grant, Co-Investigator, CAD 78,736
  • Student-Elected Best Professor of the Master of International Econ and Finance Program, JHU SAIS, 2016-2017
  • Alcoa Foundation Grant, Co-PI, USD 500,000, 2016-2019
  • Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 364,378, 2017-2019
  • Outstanding Referee Journal of International Economics, 2014-2017.
  • Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 336,462, 2011-2013
  • The Nuffield Foundation Social Science Grant, SGS/36581, Co-PI, £12,000, 2009-2011
  • MIT Presidential Fellowship, 2002-2003
Service to the University/Community
  • Securities and Futures Appeals Tribunal of the HKSAR government, member, 2023 –
  • Panel of Arbitrators of the Labour Relations Ordinance, HKSAR, member, 2023 –
  • Insurance Authority in Hong Kong SAR, Member of the Industry Advisory Committee, 2022 –
  • Telecommunications Appeal Board of the HKSAR Government, Member, 2022 –
  • Currency Board Sub-Committee of the HKMA Exchange Fund Advisory Committee, Member, 2021-
  • Minimum Wage Commission in Hong Kong SAR, Member, 2021 –
  • Pacific Economic Review, Managing Editor, 2022 –
  • Journal of International Economics, Associate Editor, 2019 – 2022
  • China Economic Review, Associate Editor, 2018 –
  • Journal of Comparative Economics, Associate Editor, 2017 – 2023
  • China Economics Summer Institute, Academic Committee Member, 2017 –
  • International Finance Corporation (IFC), Consultant, 2017 –
  • United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Consultant, 2016 – 2017
  • Asian Development Bank, Consultant, 2016 – 2017
  • IMF, Research Department, Visiting Scholar, 2015 – 2016
  • World Bank, Consultant, 2013 – 2017
Recent Publications
境外公司駐港新高 9960間 增10%

港大經管學院副院長(對外事務)鄧希煒教授表示,由於地緣政治因素,加上內地本土市場過度競爭,不少當地龍頭企業希望「出海」開拓市場。他舉例,近期來港掛牌的美的集團(00300)及順豐(06936)在內地上市多年,擇此時機在港掛牌,希望作全球部署。他直言,若只在上海或北京設置總部,內地資本管制下,資金較難投資外地,「幾十億資金難以到馬來西亞或越南」;以香港作為地區總部,就可集資及投資外地市場,擴展商業版圖。

香港經濟三大挑戰與四條出路

香港經濟自二戰後儘管經歷多次起伏,其國際金融及貿易中心地位,依然在世界經濟舞台上歷久不衰。然而,面對近年全球經濟增長放緩、區域競爭激烈及地緣政治局勢惡化,香港作為高度外向型的自由經濟體,我們不能因為過去均能化危為機便心存僥幸。時移世易,香港現時面對人口老化等諸多內憂,加上外部挑戰,未必如昔日般「耐寒」。

香港的戰略地位:供應鏈和專業服務

鄧希煒教授在接受TVB Pearl節目的訪問時表示,貿易戰已惡化,科技領域(如半導體、人工智能和機器人技術)明顯出現脫鉤現象。 然而,他認為香港仍然可以把握未來的機遇,將這座城市定位為供應鏈管理和專業服務(如金融服務和稅務諮詢)的中心。

關稅上升:鄧希煒教授對美中貿易的洞察

最近在接受CNA訪問時,港大經管學院副院長(對外事務), 亞洲環球研究所總監鄧希煒教授表示,他對特朗普將提高對中國的關稅並不感到驚訝。特朗普會逐步提高對中國的關稅,以增強美國的談判權力。 提高關稅是一種低效的措施,因為這將增加美國的生產成本和商品價格。他認為,美國對墨西哥的關稅可能不會持續太久,因為兩國政府可能很快就會達成協議,考慮到墨西哥的經濟規模相對較小,但對美國的出口依賴程度更高。

中美關係的變局與香港應對之策

隨着特朗普確定重返白宮,中美關係將進一步緊張。港大經管學院副院長及亞洲環球研究所總監鄧希煒教授在接受《信報財經》訪問時指出,特朗普新內閣的鷹派基調可能加強對中國在貿易、科技及地緣政治方面的打壓。在全球博弈中,中國需拉攏盟友與深化內需,而香港需穩固其「中西橋樑」的角色。 全球正式進入「一球兩制」時代 鄧教授指出,全球科技格局已進入「一球兩制」時代,即美國主導的技術生態與中國的獨立體系分庭抗禮。特朗普的政策或加速科技脫鉤,尤其是在人工智能與半導體領域。中國需加強科技自立、重構產業鏈,深化與歐洲及東盟的合作,同時特朗普的孤立主義或削弱美國盟友的團結,為中國提供合作契機。

特朗普的經濟策略:對全球貿易和金融市場的影響

特朗普贏得美國總統選舉,港大經管學院副院長及亞洲環球研究所總監鄧希煒教授早前接受香港電台訪問時,深入分析特朗普再次當選的潛在影響。他指出,特朗普主張「美國優先」,雖然若實施高關稅和貿易戰,將對全球產業鏈造成衝擊,但是對金融市場可能帶來利好消息,因為特朗普傾向通過減息,利用貨幣政策推動經濟發展。 鄧教授強調,加徵關稅對中國出口的影響無疑存在,但影響不會過於重大。他指出,特朗普面臨的矛盾在於通脹壓力與減息之間的掙扎。他認為,特朗普對中國的加關稅將確定會實施,但未必如他所言加至60%。他也提到對盟友的10%關稅,短期內特朗普不會輕易推行。

香港貿易數字化的三大KPI

目前,香港的電子商務銷售僅佔全港零售額的8%,遠低於其他電商發達市場如內地、英國和韓國,可見香港在電子商務以至數字貿易方面仍有很大發展空間。香港應把握未來貿易新趨勢,重點發展貿易數字化, 以實踐貿易無紙化、發展跨境電子商務和數字服務貿易為三大KPI。

香港貿易數字化的三大KPI

目前,香港的電子商務銷售僅佔全港零售額的8%,遠低於其他電商發達市場如內地、英國和韓國,可見香港在電子商務以至數字貿易方面仍有很大發展空間。香港應把握未來貿易新趨勢,重點發展貿易數字化, 以實踐貿易無紙化、發展跨境電子商務和數字服務貿易為三大KPI。

吸引龍頭企業來港自然可吸引相關人才

港大經管學院副院長(對外事務)鄧希煒教授認為,香港目前面臨的問題,不少屬於過往多年累積的結構性問題,包括大財團壟斷及產業單一化,經濟上過於依賴金融業,中央政府已提出香港要發展多元產業,包括推動高新科技的發展,並提升與大灣區合作,但這些改革目標相信受限於移民潮等因素導致的人才流失,以及公務員因循守舊文化,而未能有所突破。 他建議,本港要推動多元化產業,首先需要吸引相關龍頭企業來港,這些企業自然能夠帶動相關人才來港,而港府已有吸引人才政策包括高才通等,也可以進行優化,以產業轉型需求為主導,吸引相關專才,包括國際人才,目前這些人才政策吸引的大部分為內地人。同時,本港大學本身在高新科技等方面擁有頂尖的學者,可以透過提升產業互動,令其能夠更容易接觸到如天使基金等投資者,並便利其創業。

勞動人口大減︰移民潮抵銷「失業潮」

在經濟吹淡風時,勞動人口大减,亦可能爲失業率「减壓」。事關,經濟疲弱時,對崗位的需求减少,但剛好勞動市場「少」了近20萬的勞動人口,變相幫助「消化」了失業潮。例如企業本應裁員,但有員工移民,變相分子﹙失業人口﹚及分母﹙勞動人口﹚皆减少;又例如,少了的勞動人口,如果他們都是就業人口,意味市場上多了職位空缺,可讓原本失業的人填補,令失業率能够保持「穩定」。 港大經管學院副院長(對外事務)鄧希煒教授則表示,本港失業率仍維持偏低水平,相信主要由于近年移民潮等因素,令本身勞動人口(分母)及失業人口(分子)均减少所影響,導致市民觀感與政府數據出現落差。 但他續稱,目前本港企業倒閉情况持續,預計失業率會有上升壓力。值得留意的是,香港移民潮流失的不少是出于事業黃金期的壯年人才,而港府近年透過人才計劃吸引的多爲內地人才,但很多人才都是傾向于先安頓子女在港教育,然後才找工作,不少可能先行從事保險業,出現職業錯配情况。