特朗普贏得美國總統選舉,港大經管學院副院長及亞洲環球研究所總監鄧希煒教授早前接受香港電台訪問時,深入分析特朗普再次當選的潛在影響。他指出,特朗普主張「美國優先」,雖然若實施高關稅和貿易戰,將對全球產業鏈造成衝擊,但是對金融市場可能帶來利好消息,因為特朗普傾向通過減息,利用貨幣政策推動經濟發展。 鄧教授強調,加徵關稅對中國出口的影響無疑存在,但影響不會過於重大。他指出,特朗普面臨的矛盾在於通脹壓力與減息之間的掙扎。他認為,特朗普對中國的加關稅將確定會實施,但未必如他所言加至60%。他也提到對盟友的10%關稅,短期內特朗普不會輕易推行。
3917 0029
3917 4388
MB 335/ KK 920
- PhD: MIT
- Bachelor: UCLA
Heiwai Tang is Victor and William Fung Professor in Economics, Director of the Asia Global Institute and HKU APEC Study Center, as well as the Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy at the University of Hong Kong (HKU). Prior to joining HKU, he was tenured Associate Professor of International Economics at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) of Johns Hopkins University. He is also affiliated with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (U.S.), the Center of Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESIfo, Germany), the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany) and the Globalization and Economic Policy Center (U.K.) as a research fellow. He has been a consultant to the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the United Nations, and the Asian Development Bank; and held visiting positions at the IMF, Stanford, MIT, Harvard. He is currently an associate editor of the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Comparative Economics and the China Economic Review. Since 2021, he has served on a number of public bodies, including the Currency Board Sub-Committee of the HKMA’s Exchange Fund Advisory Committee and the Minimum Wage Commission in Hong Kong.
Heiwai holds a Ph.D. in economics from MIT and a Bachelor of Science in mathematics from UCLA. His research interests span a wide range of theoretical and empirical topics in international trade, with a specific focus on production networks, global value chains, and China. His research has been published in leading journals in economics, including American Economic Review and Journal of International Economics. His research and opinions have been covered by BBC, Financial Times, New York Times, Al Jazeera, Foreign Policy, South China Morning Post, and various think tanks such as the Brookings Institution and the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Columbia-LBS-HKU EMBA: The New World Order
HKU-PKU DBA: Frontiers in Economics Research
Fudan-HKU IMBA: The New World Order
HKU: Undergraduate Common Core – China in the Global Economy; MBA – Global Economy; Master of Economics – Economic Policy
International Trade, Global Value Chains, Development Economics
- “Trade Networks and Firm Value: Evidence from the US-China Trade War,” Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. (with Yi Huang, Chen Lin, and Sibo Liu)
- “Currency Carry Trade by Trucks: The Curious Case of China’s Massive Imports from Itself”, Review of Finance, 27(2), March 2023, pp. 469–493. (with Xuepeng Liu, Zhi Wang, and Shang-Jin Wei)
- “Do Multinationals Transfer Culture? Evidence on Female Employment in China”, Journal of International Economics, 133, Nov 2021, 103518. (with Yifan Zhang)
- “Domestic Segment of Global Value Chains in China under State Capitalism”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 48(4), Dec 2020, pp. 797-821. (with Fei Wang and Zhi Wang)
- “Why is China Investing in Africa? Evidence from the Firm Level”, World Bank Economic Review, 32(3), Oct 2018, pp. 610-632. (with Wenjie Chen and David Dollar)
- “Are Foreign Firms Favored in China? Firm-level Evidence on the Collection of Value-Added Tax”, Journal of International Business Policy, 1(2), Inaugural Issue, Jun 2018, pp. 71-91. (with Yasheng Huang)
- “Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China”, American Economic Review, 106(6), Jun 2016, pp. 1402-1436. (with Hiau Looi Kee)
- “Learning to Export from Neighbors”, Journal of International Economics, 94(1), Sep 2014, pp. 67-84. (with Ana Fernandes)
- “Factor Intensity, Product Switching, and Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Exporters”, Journal of International Economics, 92(2), Mar 2014, pp. 349-362. (with Yue Ma and Yifan Zhang)
- “International Politics and Import Diversification”, Journal of Law and Economics, 56(4), Nov 2013, pp. 1091-1121. (with Sergey Mityakov and Kevin Tsui)
- “Determinants of Vertical Integration in Export Processing: Theory and Evidence from China”, Journal of Development Economics, 99(2), Nov 2012, pp. 396-414. (with Ana Fernandes)
- “Labor Market Institutions, Firm-specific Skills, and Trade Patterns”, Journal of International Economics, 87(2), Jul 2012, pp. 337-351.
- APEC Study Center Financial Support from the HKSAR Government, PI, HKD 2,500,000, 2022-2027
- HKU Knowledge Exchange Grant, PI, HKD 497,000, 2023
- Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 418,975, 2022-2024
- Committee of 100 Next Generation Leader, 2018
- Richard Paul Richman Center for Business, Law, and Public Policy Grant, Columbia University, Co-PI, USD 14,500.
- Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada Insight Grant, Co-Investigator, CAD 78,736
- Student-Elected Best Professor of the Master of International Econ and Finance Program, JHU SAIS, 2016-2017
- Alcoa Foundation Grant, Co-PI, USD 500,000, 2016-2019
- Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 364,378, 2017-2019
- Outstanding Referee Journal of International Economics, 2014-2017.
- Hong Kong RGC Grant, Co-PI, HKD 336,462, 2011-2013
- The Nuffield Foundation Social Science Grant, SGS/36581, Co-PI, £12,000, 2009-2011
- MIT Presidential Fellowship, 2002-2003
- Securities and Futures Appeals Tribunal of the HKSAR government, member, 2023 –
- Panel of Arbitrators of the Labour Relations Ordinance, HKSAR, member, 2023 –
- Insurance Authority in Hong Kong SAR, Member of the Industry Advisory Committee, 2022 –
- Telecommunications Appeal Board of the HKSAR Government, Member, 2022 –
- Currency Board Sub-Committee of the HKMA Exchange Fund Advisory Committee, Member, 2021-
- Minimum Wage Commission in Hong Kong SAR, Member, 2021 –
- Pacific Economic Review, Managing Editor, 2022 –
- Journal of International Economics, Associate Editor, 2019 – 2022
- China Economic Review, Associate Editor, 2018 –
- Journal of Comparative Economics, Associate Editor, 2017 – 2023
- China Economics Summer Institute, Academic Committee Member, 2017 –
- International Finance Corporation (IFC), Consultant, 2017 –
- United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Consultant, 2016 – 2017
- Asian Development Bank, Consultant, 2016 – 2017
- IMF, Research Department, Visiting Scholar, 2015 – 2016
- World Bank, Consultant, 2013 – 2017
目前,香港的電子商務銷售僅佔全港零售額的8%,遠低於其他電商發達市場如內地、英國和韓國,可見香港在電子商務以至數字貿易方面仍有很大發展空間。香港應把握未來貿易新趨勢,重點發展貿易數字化, 以實踐貿易無紙化、發展跨境電子商務和數字服務貿易為三大KPI。
港大經管學院副院長(對外事務)鄧希煒教授認為,香港目前面臨的問題,不少屬於過往多年累積的結構性問題,包括大財團壟斷及產業單一化,經濟上過於依賴金融業,中央政府已提出香港要發展多元產業,包括推動高新科技的發展,並提升與大灣區合作,但這些改革目標相信受限於移民潮等因素導致的人才流失,以及公務員因循守舊文化,而未能有所突破。 他建議,本港要推動多元化產業,首先需要吸引相關龍頭企業來港,這些企業自然能夠帶動相關人才來港,而港府已有吸引人才政策包括高才通等,也可以進行優化,以產業轉型需求為主導,吸引相關專才,包括國際人才,目前這些人才政策吸引的大部分為內地人。同時,本港大學本身在高新科技等方面擁有頂尖的學者,可以透過提升產業互動,令其能夠更容易接觸到如天使基金等投資者,並便利其創業。
在經濟吹淡風時,勞動人口大减,亦可能爲失業率「减壓」。事關,經濟疲弱時,對崗位的需求减少,但剛好勞動市場「少」了近20萬的勞動人口,變相幫助「消化」了失業潮。例如企業本應裁員,但有員工移民,變相分子﹙失業人口﹚及分母﹙勞動人口﹚皆减少;又例如,少了的勞動人口,如果他們都是就業人口,意味市場上多了職位空缺,可讓原本失業的人填補,令失業率能够保持「穩定」。 港大經管學院副院長(對外事務)鄧希煒教授則表示,本港失業率仍維持偏低水平,相信主要由于近年移民潮等因素,令本身勞動人口(分母)及失業人口(分子)均减少所影響,導致市民觀感與政府數據出現落差。 但他續稱,目前本港企業倒閉情况持續,預計失業率會有上升壓力。值得留意的是,香港移民潮流失的不少是出于事業黃金期的壯年人才,而港府近年透過人才計劃吸引的多爲內地人才,但很多人才都是傾向于先安頓子女在港教育,然後才找工作,不少可能先行從事保險業,出現職業錯配情况。
中國在2017年提出了一項雄心勃勃的計劃,旨在將大灣區打造成高科技強國,目標是與矽谷和東京灣相抗衡。以2035年為目標,這個地區是否正朝著這些目標邁進,還是面臨著減緩進展的障礙?亞洲環球研究所總監鄧希煒教授討論了在地區日益加劇的地緣政治競爭中,大灣區的前景和挑戰。
零工經濟勢不可擋,如何平衡勞工權益、商業利益和科技發展,成為全球各地政策制定者的重要課題。根據數據顯示,到2027年美國零工工作者將佔勞動人口的51%。香港亦面臨同樣的挑戰,傳統的勞工保障制度亟待完善。
零工經濟勢不可擋,如何平衡勞工權益、商業利益和科技發展,成為全球各地政策制定者的重要課題。根據數據顯示,到2027年美國零工工作者將佔勞動人口的51%。香港亦面臨同樣的挑戰,傳統的勞工保障制度亟待完善。
鄧希煒教授最近接受了RTHK的採訪,討論香港半導體產業的發展。他提到半導體行業的發展可以帶動上下游產業的增長。
港大經管學院副院長鄧希煒在專訪中對21世紀經濟報導記者表示,本次全會的《決定》為香港指明了發展方向。香港要繼續鞏固金融、航運以及貿易中心的地位,同時能夠惠及香港中等收入人群。 發展新質生產力是本次全會的重點之一。黨的二十屆三中全會提出,“要健全因地制宜發展新質生產力體制機制”,旨在呼籲各地、各經營主體遵循自身資源、產業基礎、科研條件,按比較優勢進行戰略佈局。
港大經管學院早前公佈2024年第三季本港經濟的預測,對於略顯低迷的消費氣氛,港大經管學院副院長及亞洲環球研究所總監鄧希煒教授,於接受Now新聞的訪問時指出,投資和消費信心是關鍵。「受財富效應影響,由於短期内股市和樓市狀況形成負面的財富效應,市民投資和消費的信心自然不高,長遠而言要視乎政府三年內的經濟轉型政策,提供新的經濟增長點。」