團隊

自1983年起，香港一直實施與美元掛的聯繫匯率制度（聯匯制度）。在這40年間，制度運行穩定，順利應對了多次重大挑戰，如1997至1998年的亞洲金融危機和2007至2008年的全球金融危機等。值此制度40周年之際，本文將探討在新的國際經濟形勢下聯匯制度的現狀與發展。基於最新國際經濟學研究成果，通過量化指標，分析不同匯率制度對香港的利弊。

We propose and estimate a quantitative model of exchange rates in which participants in the foreign exchange market are intermediaries subject to value-at-risk (VaR) constraints. Higher volatility translates into tighter VaR constraints, and intermediaries require higher returns to hold foreign assets. Therefore, the foreign currency is expected to appreciate. The model quantitatively resolves the Backus–Smith puzzle, the forward premium puzzle, and the exchange rate volatility puzzle and explains deviations from the covered interest rate parity. Moreover, the model implies both contemporaneous and predictive relations between proxies of leverage constraint tightness and exchange rates. These implications are supported in the data.

方博士是一位研究匯率和國際金融的學者。方博士為人隨和，他相信，面對生活丶教學，以及研究中的起落，都應努力處之泰然。