團隊

港大經管學院金融学講座教授陈志武表示，香港经济必然受到影响，因为美国可能会提高对中国商品的关税，并加强对技术轉移。但他预计新关税上限将设定在60%。 教授指出，特朗普的主要支持者之一、科技亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克，可能在特朗普的第二任期内对与中国相关的政策制定起到缓和作用。他还预计，北京将采取更积极的刺激措施，以应对更大的地缘政治不确定性。

“第三季度的數據可能會令人失望，表現不及第二季度4.7%的同比增長，這使北京面臨更多困境，”香港大學金融學教授陳志武表示。 “這就是為什麼北京在第三季度末積極推出經濟刺激措施。”

安永調查顯示，中國電動車企業應發揮成本優勢拓展海外，惟品牌信任及知名度不足是挑戰。消費者信任度差異體現於年齡，講座教授陳志武指出年輕群體對中國品牌的信任度反映了對國家的整體印象。

中國各地正倒查一些企業和個人幾十年來拖欠的稅款，試圖解決居高不下的財政赤字並應對日益嚴重的債務危機。中國稅收征管方式的任意性將打擊企業的積極性和民營經濟的信心。港大經管學院金融學教授陳志武更是提到"中國經濟放緩是難以避免的"。

The shrinking salaries of China’s financial professionals have made the jobs in this sector losing lustre. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, commented that such pay cuts may drive away skilled financial professionals, and depress supply of risk capital and other financial services. He said, “[Over time], tech start-ups and the real economy will also suffer if there is fewer risk capital and financial products to support them.” China’s financial industry used to be providing generous salaries to bankers and financial brokers in a push to incentivise performance and internationalise operations. Prof. Chen said that a market-oriented way is better than top-down directives to decide compensation for financial professionals. “China needs to loosen regulations, increase competition to drive down the price of financial services [to benefit people and businesses],” he said.

Hong Kong is winning back wealthy people thanks to the city’s policy initiatives including tax concessions, top talent visa and residency programs, and the establishment of Family Office Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s assets under management grew 2.1% to HK$31 trillion (US$4 trillion) in 2023. Driven by a strong performance of private banking and wealth management, net fund inflows jumped more than 3 times to nearly HK$390 billion last year. While Singapore stepped up efforts to combat money laundering, it has seen a major shift from the pandemic years since Hong Kong relaxed the quarantine rules and reopened the border with efficient transportation to mainland China cities. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, said the mainland billionaires’ enthusiasm for setting up family office business in Singapore has waned, as they prefer less government checks to their personal wealth. “If Singapore would do as many checks and tighter regulations as the mainland, then why would they want to go there?” Prof. Chen said.

Investment bankers at China International Capital Corp. are pledging their loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party amid reshaped the business and cultural landscape in China. Prof. Zhiwu Chen, a chair professor in finance at HKU Business School, said, “There has been a political redefinition of finance.” He added, “The future of CICC is that there’s no more CICC in a few years’ time”.

Physical bank branches and ATMs have seen their numbers dwindling as the public embraces e-payment platforms and financial institutions cut costs. Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, said, “The banks have found it unnecessary to add branches as they reduce costs.” A refocus on mobile payments among other online transactions, he said, “has in effect served to reduce face-to-face services at banks”.

通過量化歷史資料，我們可以看到整個中國社會大致的發展趨勢和不同時期主要發展的主旋律。