團隊

ZHIWU CHEN, PROFESSOR OF FINANCE, UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG - "One significant change is to de-emphasise economic development and economic reform. From the 14th to the 19th Party Congress, economic development was, each time, explicitly stated as the central mission for the Party, whereas this time there is no such mention; instead, the emphasis is on 'complete' and 'all-rounded' development. That is, it is not just economic development but also political, social, environmental, and cultural development that the Party will devote efforts to."

“The 60 reforms would have largely expanded the role of consumption and private initiatives,” says Chen Zhiwu, a professor in Chinese finance and economy at the University of Hong Kong. “However, the market-oriented reform agenda has been largely sidelined . . . resulting in a larger role for the state and a shrunken role for the private sector.”

Chen Zhiwu, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, says Chinese leaders understand military conflicts may be “hard to avoid” if Beijing wants to unify Taiwan with the mainland. “The comprehensive economic sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine have only added urgency to [China] achieving self-sufficiency in technology, finance, food and energy,” Chen adds. “Self-sufficiency as a phrase has regained currency in the party’s publications.”

“Banks are caught in the middle,” , “If they don’t help the developers finish the projects, they would end up losing much more. If they do, that of course would make the government happy, but they add more to their exposure to delayed real estate projects.” — Professor Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance

“After the failed Blackstone transaction, they clearly knew that more things would come. It was only a matter of time.” — Professor Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance

港大經管學院金融學講座教授及鄭裕彤基金教授（金融學）陳志武教授接受鳳凰秀專訪。今年3月，陳教授出版新書《文明的邏輯》中，他提出，通常「生產力」被用作評判人類進步的標準，但他提出，用「人類風險應對能力」這一個指標，分析人類文明的發展。未來的世界可能面臨哪些風險？全球通脹、俄鳥衝突、能源危機……亂局之下，今年下半年或明年，會有一場「風暴」來襲嗎？

Over the past millennium, China has relied on the Confucian clan to achieve interpersonal cooperation, focusing on kinship and neglecting the development of impersonal institutions needed for external finance. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the Confucian clan and financial markets are competing substitutes. Using the large cross-regional variation in the adoption of modern banks, we find that regions with historically stronger Confucian clans established significantly fewer modern banks in the four decades following the founding of China's first modern bank in 1897. Our evidence also shows that the clan continues to limit China's financial development today.

China’s desire to escape the shadow of the U.S. dollar and build an alternative infrastructure for global finance is being stymied by one major factor: Its reluctance to loosen the shackles around its own currency. By creating the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, or CIPS, back in 2015, the Chinese financial authorities had hoped to provide a way for companies and individuals to keep money flowing internationally — even if China were ever to come under the same kind of economic pressure Western countries are currently meting out to Russia, following its invasion of Ukraine. The problem is that CIPS has neither the scope nor the technical capability to match its Western counterpart — the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), often described as the Gmail of the global banking system.

The risk of additional sanctions deters Chinese lenders, while a fledgling payment network relies on the Swift global system