學術論文

我們透過分析舌蠅於前殖民地時期在不同地域的生存條件差異，來研究流行病對現代金融發展的影響。在非洲，舌蠅傳播一種對人類有害且導致牲畜死亡的流行病。利用新的地理參考數據，我們發現歷史上位於較容易受到流行病影響的地區的公司和家庭，現今獲得外源融資的機會較小。通過探索這些渠道，我們發現歷史上蟲害成災地區的居民較難信任他人和金融機構、共享資訊，以及學習和採用新的金融科技。

This paper provides a simple unified analysis of optimal interval division problems. My primitive is a cell function that assigns a value to each subinterval (cell). Submodular cell functions conveniently imply the property of decreasing marginal returns. Also, for coarse decision problems, optimal cutoffs commonly increase as prior belief shifts upward. Its implications on language and efficient menus are discussed.

This paper studies how the two types of uncertainty due to ignorance, parameter and model uncertainty, jointly affect strategic consumption-portfolio rules, precautionary savings, and welfare. We incorporate these two types of uncertainty into a recursive utility version of a canonical Merton (1971) model with uninsurable labor income and unknown income growth, and derive analytical solutions and testable implications. We show that the interaction between the two types of uncertainty plays a key role in determining the demand for precautionary savings and risky assets. We derive formulas to evaluate both marginal and total welfare costs of ignorance-induced uncertainty and show they are significant for plausible parameter values.

由於價格資訊在消費者決策中發揮了關鍵作用，本研究關註消費者購買決策過程中，產品列表廣告 (PLA) 的價格排名對消費者點擊以及購買決策的影響，以及兩個關鍵字屬性的調節效應。本研究基於一家大型電子購物平臺的廣告數據以及模擬實驗數據，進行基於層級貝氏模型的實證分析。我們發現, 在同時展示的幾個產品列表廣告中，處在購買決策的早期的消費者會傾向點擊極端價格（即最高或最低）的產品，並將其用作參考點來快速評估其他選項。相比之下，處在購買決策的後期的消費者會傾向於點擊並購買價格適中的產品。這樣是由於這類消費者會在價格和質量之間作出取捨而選擇一個中庸的產品。關鍵詞的屬性會進一步影響價格排名對於消費者決策的作用。對於具體關鍵詞所對應的產品列表廣告，價格排名的影響會被減弱；對於流行的關鍵詞所對應的產品列表廣告，廣告排名的作用則會被加強。本文的研究結果為企業了解價格信息在產品列表廣告中所扮演的角色，以及如何製定更有效廣告策略帶來了新的啟示。

團隊合作的一大好處是能夠促進成員交流，並整合不同範疇的知識、經驗和意見。然而，人口統計的特質——例如種族、性別和職能背景——可能會在多元群體的成員之間產生不對稱的影響，原因是這些人口特徵通常與社會地位差異相關。在此研究中，我們探討領導者的凝視行為如何減少多元群體中成員影響力的差異。我們從兩項研究中發現，社會地位高的成員一般在群體決策過程中有更大影響力，然而當領導者對社會地位較低的成員增加視線上的注意力時，這種不對稱影響模式會減弱。領導者的凝視行為減少成員影響力的差異，在集體決策過程中卻提升群體信息的闡述和團隊表現。本研究對領導者的視覺注意力、多元性、群體決策過程和團體表現，進行理論和實踐的探討。

透過分析英國的官方管理的全面數據，我們研究政府債券市場中不同類型投資者的交易行為。我們的數據涵蓋英國二級市場幾乎所有國債交易，同時我們可以觀測到每筆交易的詳細信息，包括交易雙方的身份。我們發現，對沖基金的每日交易可預測到未來一至五天的英國國債回報率，然而這個預測在一個月之後出現反轉。這種短期回報的可預測性，部分成因在於對沖基金能預測其他投資者的投資行為。我們同時發現公募基金的交易也可預示英國國債券的回報率，這個預測率時間可持續達一至兩個月並且不會出現發現轉。根據我們的深入研究，我們發現公募基金的預測率部分原因是由於公募基金能夠預測短期利率的變化。

This study assesses a new mechanism, the deposit channel, in the transmission of interest rate shock to household consumption using an administrative panel data set of financial transactions for Turkey. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in consumers' adherence to the Islamic laws that forbid earning interest and employs a standard difference-in-difference design. Following an unanticipated announcement of interest rate hike, rate-sensitive consumers significantly reduce their overall spending, and the response persists throughout the post-announcement period. The response of debt payment, disparate exposure to inflation, exchange rate, and the demographic difference can hardly fully account for the documented consumption response heterogeneity.

From 1580, the Jesuits introduced European sciences to China--an autarkic civilization whose intelligentsia was dominated by Confucian literati. Drawing upon prefectural distributions of the Jesuits and Chinese scientific works, this paper demonstrates that the Jesuits stimulated Confucian literati to study science. On average, the literati’s scientific works increased four times in prefectures with Jesuit scientists after 1580. But this effect shrank after the Jesuits were expelled by the emperor of China in 1723. Since China’s scholar-official system remained unchanged, the literati’s scientific research aimed to serve the needs of statecraft rather than translating into economic progress.

After peaking around the mid-eighteenth century, grain market integration in China declined by a colossal 80 percent amid a twofold increase in population and remained at low levels for well over a century. Markets only resumed their growth momentum after the largest peasant revolt—the Taiping Rebellion—wiped out roughly one-sixth of the Chinese population starting 1851. This U-shaped pattern of grain market integration distinguished China from Europe in their trajectories of market development. Using grain prices to divide China into grain-deficit and grain-surplus regions, we find that the negative relationship between population growth and market integration originated from the grain-surplus-cum-exporting regions.