媒體報導

港人北上，反向消費，已經成為新冠疫情后香港與大灣區旅遊消費的常態。根據旅遊發展局公布數據，2023年訪港內地旅客共2676萬人次，遠低於疫情前2019年的4377萬人次以及2018年的5104萬人次。相比之下，內地旅遊則大幅發展。2023年北上香港居民累計達5300萬人次，恰好為訪港內地旅客的兩倍，其中超過4000萬經深港各個口岸出境。

剛剛過去的五一假期，在內地被稱為吃喝玩樂爆棚的消費黃金周，算是給略顯疲態的中國經濟帶來一股暖流。雖然香港部分商家也受益於內地黃金周的溢出效應，但其作用就像這幾天市民議論紛紛的五一煙火表演，站在有利位置倒也頗為可觀，但畢竟不像射向高空的煙花那般絢爛，稍微遠離樓台就只能空對月。

Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, acknowledges this long-standing shift, stating, "This has been going on for at least about 8-10 years," referring to an industrial policy factoring in "war preparation."

這兩天又是美國聯儲局議息的日子。從2022年3月到2023年7月的短短16個月內，聯儲局持續提高政策利率以遏抑40多年未有的高通脹，累計加息5.25厘。至去年11月，以消費物價指數（CPI）計算的年通脹率，已由2022年6月的9.06%高峰下降至3.14%。若以聯儲局關注的個人消費支出物價指數（PCE）計算，去年10月至12月的按月增幅均差不多為零。市場樂見遏抑通脹見成效，預期2024年將進入減息周期，甚至有估計認為全年會減息6次。

Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, emphasises that the key concern is to maintain confidence in the market. While political measures to boost the economy may be well-intentioned, their effectiveness can vary depending on the specific context, economic conditions, and implementation.

Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, commented that gold represented the only safe asset for Chinese consumers to protect their wealth against domestic inflation, asset price declines, as well as uncertainties in the global landscape.

Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of the HKU Business School and Director of the Asia Global Institute, recently shared insights on this issue with China Daily. Drawing from behavioural economics, Prof. Tang highlighted how short-term factors like childcare access, living environments, and educational costs influence couples' decisions to raise children. He remarked, "With a better living environment, the fertility rate can also be boosted...When young couples feel those short-term issues can be resolved, they may decide to raise children."

港大經管學院及香港大學中國經濟研究所於4月26日舉辦第二屆中國經濟季度論壇，邀請中誠信集團創始人、港大經管學院經濟學實務教授毛振華教授擔任專題演講嘉賓，發表以「當前中國經濟走勢與政策調整」為題的主題報告。港大經管學院副院長（對外事務）、馮國經馮國綸基金經濟學教授兼香港經濟及商業策略研究所副總監鄧希煒教授亦於會上分享「新全球化下中國經濟未來發展的挑戰及機遇 」的主題演講。

有錢使得鬼推磨？是否有經濟效益，人就一定循既定的理性模式作出選擇？資訊無限，時間有限，人甚大部分時候都是無意中用直覺做決定。